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The top two projected playoff seeds in the NFC will clash Sunday night under the lights after being flexed into prime time, but will the rest and relaxation of a bye week be enough for the Green Bay Packers to come away with a victory in San Francisco?
The 49ers (9-1) are just two weeks removed from their first loss of the season against Seattle and had to rally 16 points down last week for a win over Arizona, making the Packers (8-2) a make-or-break type of opponent. Win and the prospects of a Super Bowl trip start feeling real for the 49ers. Lose and risk being left behind altogether in the NFC race.
The same thing could be said about the Packers, who have battle-tested wins over Minnesota, Dallas and Kansas City but are just slightly ahead of the Vikings in the divisional standings. In three of four NFC divisions, the top two teams are separated by a win or fewer just to make the wild-card prospects harder to prediction.
Here’s some more background on the NFC powers along with stats and advice on the Week 12 matchup.
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Packers vs. 49ers Game Details
Date: Sunday, November 24
Time: 7:20 p.m. CT
Location: Levi’s Stadium (Santa Clara, Calif.)
TV: NBC
Spread: 49ers -3
Total: 47.5
*All odds are courtesy of OddsShark.
Line Movement
This line hasn’t fluctuated much since the 49ers opened as 3.5-point favorites with just a half-point difference across popular books, according to VegasInsider.com. If you’re following the money, though, 53 percent of public bets have come in favor of the Packers, according to ActionNetwork.com.
The total opened at 44 but has jumped to 45.5 at most books, while 68 percent of bets are coming in on the over in anticipation of a high-scoring matchup.
Betting Trends
- Total has gone OVER in San Francisco’s last four games
- San Francisco is 9-1 SU in last 10 games
- Green Bay is 5-1 SU in last six games
- Green Bay is 7-3 ATS over last 10 games
- San Francisco are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. Green Bay
- Green Bay is 15-5 SU in last 20 games played in San Francisco
*All trends are courtesy of OddsShark
Analysis & Picks
It doesn’t take a genius to figure out why the NFL flexed this game into their Sunday night slot. The two teams have combined for 17 wins this season and are both among leading candidates to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl in February, making their prime-time matchup one with undeniable ramifications for each side.
The Packers are touting their healthiest injury report of the season after last week’s bye and will continue to run their offense through nearly a dozen different weapons, though a bulk of the power will be drawn from the star power of Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones and Davante Adams. Jones is tied with Carolina’s Christian McCaffrey with a league-most 14 touchdowns, while Adams tallied his third performance of the year with more than 100 receiving yards — in just six total games.
The bigger emphasis will be on a Packers defense, which has given up at least 24 points in each of its last three games and has shown weakness against stopping the run. The 49ers are currently the league’s second-most efficient rushing team, gaining nearly 150 yards per game on the backs of three steady rushers: Matt Breida, Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert.
While Breida missed the week of practice, the Packers will still have their hands full trying to plug up Coleman and Mostert, while Jimmy Garoppolo and 49ers passing game could also get a huge boost if star tight end George Kittle returns Sunday night.
Pick: Packers +3
Over-under: Over 45.5
Prediction: Packers 31, 49ers 27
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