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It’s been a season of near-misses for Auburn. The Tigers have lost three games by a total of 21 points, all against teams that are in the top 10 (Florida, LSU, Georgia). Auburn will now have to avoid a lookahead spot against FCS opponent Samford on Saturday with rival Alabama looming next week in the Iron Bowl. The Bulldogs will be playing in their season finale after an up and down campaign that saw them go 4-4 in Southern Conference play. Samford is coming off a 31-13 win over Western Carolina last Saturday. Auburn and Samford last played in 2014 with the Tigers winning it 31-7.
We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for this matchup between the Bulldogs and Tigers.
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Samford at Auburn Game Details
Date: Saturday, November 23
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Location: Nippert Stadium (Cincinnati, Ohio)
TV: ESPN
Spread: Auburn -48.5
Total: 64
*All odds are courtesy of Vegas Insider
Line Movement
This line opened at Auburn -48.5 but there is very little data available on the movement due to the limited offering of the game, according to VegasInsider.com. The action favors Samford, as the Bulldogs are getting 72% of the bets and 90% of the money, according to The Action Network.
The total opened at 64 and with the action favoring the under as 95% of the bets on the over and 98% of the money is on the under.
Betting Trends
- Auburn is 7-3 ATS this season
- Under is 6-4 in Auburn games this season
- Auburn is 4-2 ATS at home this season
- Under is 4-2 in Auburn home games this season
- Samford is 2-3 SU on the road this season
- Auburn is 5-1 SU at home this season
*All betting trends are courtesy of Covers
Prediction & Picks
I’m not sure how interested Auburn will be for this game. In a classic sandwich spot, the Tigers are coming off a hard-fought 21-14 loss to Georgia last week, and have their biggest rival Alabama awaiting on deck in the Iron Bowl, so it’s hard to believe that Auburn will be at their best for an FCS opponent. That being said, Samford has been a below-average FCS team this year and will likely finish the season with a sub-.500 record barring a miraculous win on Saturday. Auburn quarterback Bo Nix has thrown just three touchdowns in his last three games as the Tigers have leaned on their ground attack of late. Auburn is ranked 28th in the FBS with 205.8 rush yards per game, led by JaTarvious Whitlow and D.J. Williams, who ran for 130 in the loss to LSU. This is one of the worst games on the board to bet this weekend and the fact that on Friday it is still only being offered at a very small number of books should tell you everything you need to know. There are plenty of other more competitive gambling options to wet your whistle this weekend, but if you must play it, I think fading the Tigers is the only way to go here, as I do not expect them to be very highly motivated this week.
PICK: Samford +48.5 (-110)
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Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith
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