Getty Colts QB Jacoby Brissett.
Week 13 in the NFL features 12 games on Sunday and plenty of opportunities to beat the book. Below I share my 5 best NFL bets. All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
We’ll start things off with my favorite pick of the week which features the surging New York Jets as a road favorite taking on the winless Cincinnati Bengals.
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New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals
The line movement in this game was a bit tricky. Considering how well the Jets have played the past three games, and how poorly the Bengals have played all season, you would think Cincinnati would be more than a 3.5-point underdog. The line also has drifted towards Cincinnati this week and will most likely close on the key number of three, which means there has been some sharp money come in on the home underdog. It could be a good sell-high spot for the Jets, whose only road win during this stretch came against the woeful Redskins. The Bengals defense has been playing better the past two weeks, allowing a combined 33 points. I can see Andy Dalton picking himself off the mat and playing with a huge chip on his shoulder after the benching. It would be embarrassing if the Jets lost to two winless teams this season, but it’s the Jets, so there’s always the possibility of embarrassing situations rearing their ugly head. I’m going with the home underdog here.
PICK: Bengals +3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars
The total is most appealing to me in this game, but I’m confused by the line movement. Everything points to the over, including the Bucs shoddy defense and potential hot streak for Jameis Winston at some point during the game. Tampa Bay has played nine straight games to the over and Winston might not only lead the league in interceptions but also passing yards and touchdowns. He is truly an enigma wrapped in a riddle and there’s no way I can back him here, despite the sharp line movement in Tampa’s direction. This total has been bet down almost three points, which to me means it’s approaching value territory on the over. I think Winston throws three touchdowns and one pick-six as this number flies over the total.
PICK: Over 47
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
It’s hard to believe that these two teams will meet again so soon after what was an absurd scene 2.5 weeks ago between Myles Garrett and Mason Rudolph. I would imagine emotions will be high in this game especially early on and it would not surprise me if both teams struggle to move the ball in the first half. The Steelers defense is the best unit on the field and has been playing at an elite level since the team acquired safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. Pittsburgh’s D is ranked No. 3 in the NFL according to DVOA and I expect them to put forth an inspired effort at home in a rivalry game. If I had to pick a side in this game, I would fade the line movement and grab the value with the Steelers getting points at home, but the pick I really like in this game is the under, especially in the first half as this divisional slugfest should not exceed the total.
PICK: Under 20 1st half
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Just call them the cardiac Colts. Indianapolis has only played one game decided by more than 7 points this season, a 33-13 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars two weeks ago. That was also the Colts last win, but needless to say, Indy has a knack for playing close games this season. Normally that would push me towards the underdog in a tight divisional matchup, but in this case, with such a short line, no underdog value can be found by betting the Titans. That pushed me back towards the home side, and as I dug deeper into the box score from the previous matchup this season, I noticed just how evenly matched these teams are. The Colts beat the Titans 19-17 back in Week 2, and held Tennessee to just 243 yards of total offense. Indianapolis was able to win the game despite losing the turnover battle 2-0. Granted, that was with Mariota under center, but Indy has owned this series regardless of who is under the center. The Colts are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 games against the Titans and 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings at Lucas Oil Stadium. Take the short home favorite here.
PICK: Colts -1.5
Philadelphia Eagles at Miami Dolphins
This feels like a perfect get right spot for the Eagles. The line has moved steadily with the market as it appears that both the sharps and the public are on Philly. The return of Alshon Jeffrey is huge for the Eagles offense that has scored just 19 combined points in the last two games. The good news for Philadelphia is they aren’t facing the Seahawks or Patriots defenses this week. The Dolphins have the worst defense in the NFL according to DVOA and are allowing 31.5 points per game this season. I expect Carson Wentz to let out some frustration on the Dolphins secondary. Wentz has not thrown more than 1 touchdown pass in the last 5 games. Meanwhile, Ryan Fitzpatrick has been the definition of hit-or-miss this season with 10 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. DeVante Parker has been a bright spot with a touchdown in three of his last four home games but it won’t be enough. Expect for Fitzpatrick’s regression to continue and Wentz to rise to the occasion in a must-win spot for the Birds. Take the road favorite.
PICK: Eagles -10
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