Getty Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield.
Week 14 in the NFL features 14 games on Sunday and plenty of opportunities to beat the book. Below I share my 5 best NFL bets. All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
We’ll start things off with my favorite pick of the week which features two in-state division rivals meeting in the battle for Ohio as the Cleveland Browns host the Cincinnati Bengals.
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Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
This feels like a prime letdown spot for the Cincinnati Bengals. Fresh off their first win of the season, I expect Cincinnati to revert back into their early season form as they now have to go on the road against a desperate Cleveland Browns team fighting for their playoff lives. Cleveland’s offense should get a boost from the return of tight end David Njoku, who is expected to be activated and play for the first time since Week 2. As long as Baker’s hand injury is under control and there aren’t any lingering issues, I expect the Browns to be able to move the ball by attacking the outside of the Bengals defense. Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry should have solid games and both should be played on their anytime touchdown prop. Swallow the points and take the Browns.
PICK: Browns -7
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
The New York Jets season continues to be a rollercoaster ride of extreme highs and even more extreme lows. Blowout victories over the Giants, Raiders, and Redskins had some hoping that a late-season resurgence could silence the critics of Adam Gase. But a dud last week against Cincinnati and the dubious distinction of losing to a pair of winless teams in the same season has many questioning the Jets leadership, and rightfully so. I’ve been impressed with what I’ve seen of Sam Darnold since the “seeing ghosts” incidence against the Patriots earlier this season. No Le’Veon Bell isn’t necessarily a bad thing for this offense either, as Bilal Powell deserves a run as the lead back. Powell is averaging nearly 4.0 yards per carry but has shown a burst through the hole in limited playing time this year. You will see a lot of Powell and Ty Montgomery on Sunday and despite being without Jamal Adams, I think the defense rallies and shows some pride against an undermanned Miami squad feeling themselves a bit coming off a win. Take the home team.
PICK: Jets -5
Indianapolis Colts vs. Tampa Bay Bucs
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been an enigma wrapped in a riddle this season. Jameis Winston could win the Triple Crown and lead the league in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and interceptions, which would be a rare fitting feat for the volatile quarterback. The Indianapolis Colts will be without two key pieces on offense Sunday as wide receiver T.Y. Hilton will sit due to a calf injury and kicker Adam Vinatieri is out with a left knee injury. Vinatieri has struggled mightily this season and is making just 68% of his field goals. Chase McLaughlin will try to fill the void on special teams for Indy but place-kicking could be another adventure on Sunday. McLaughlin is 13-for-17 on field goals this season kicking for the Chargers and Rams. Hilton’s absence will be much more noticeable and look for Tampa’s defense to take away the run with limited play-makers up top for Jacoby Brissett to throw to. The Bucs broke out of their shell last week and played a complete game against the Jaguars, beating their in-state rival 28-11. This feels like another good spot to back Winston in a low-pressure situation against a team with little hope of the postseason.
PICK: Bucs -3
Denver Broncos at Houston Texans
The Houston Texans snuck by the Denver Broncos in this matchup last season by a final score of 19-17 as McManus missed a 51-yard field goal as time expired. But that was with Case Keenum under center for Denver. The Broncos quarterback situation has deteriorated vastly since last year with the injury to Joe Flacco and poor play of Brandon Allen. Now it’s Lock under center as Denver tries to keep things close in Houston. Offensively, I don’t think the Broncos offense can keep up with the high-octane Texans attack. Denver has scored just 16.5 points per game this season, third-fewest in the NFL and has failed to exceed 24 points in a game this season. They will need to break that threshold this week if they want any chance of winning this game. However, this is the ultimate sandwich spot for Houston after a huge win last Sunday night over the Pats and a big divisional game on deck next week in Nashville against the Titans. The under feels like a good play here as I expect Houston’s offense to be a bit sluggish as well.
PICK: Under 43
Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars
In a game featuring two struggling offenses with nothing to play for, I think we could be in store for some points. I have no scientific stat line to back this up, except for prior experience betting overs in games where there is nothing to play for but pride. Both of these teams have had major issues moving the ball consistently this season and the Jacksonville Jaguars have been especially beaten down of late, losing the last four games by an average of 20.5 points. I expect Gardner Minshew to play better here and for the Jags offense to finally get rolling. On the other side, the decline of Philip Rivers continues but the veteran is still completing 64.7% of his passes this season so you can count on the Los Angeles Chargers putting some points on the board as well. Rivers has been turnover-prone of late with eight interceptions in his last three games. I’m counting on some turnovers leading to points and I expect this game to fly over the total as both teams let out some frustrations on offense.
PICK: Over 42.5
READ NEXT: Chargers vs. Broncos Prediction: Betting Odds, Spread & Pick
Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith
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