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The Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts are both still alive in the race for the postseason. The two division rivals meet on Sunday in Indianapolis with identical 6-5 records in what could be an elimination game for the loser. The Colts have lost three of their last four games and have had 10 days off since a 20-17 loss to the Houston Texans last Thursday. Meanwhile, the Titans have won four of their last five and are surging with Ryan Tannehill under center. Tannehill is completing 72.1% of his passes since taking over as the starter for Marcus Mariota.
According to ESPN’s FPI, the Colts have a 60.4% chance of winning this game. We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for Sunday’s AFC South matchup between the Colts and Titans.
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Titans vs. Colts Game Details
Date: Sunday, November 30
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, Indiana)
TV: CBS
Spread: Colts -1.5
Total: 42.5
*All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Line Movement
This line opened at Colts -3.5 and has been bet all the way down to Colts -1 at most books, according to VegasInsider.com. The action is split with the Colts receiving 55% of the bets and the Titans getting 56% of the money, according to The Action Network.
The total opened at 42 and has been bet up slightly to 42.5 at most books with 61% of the bets on the over and 57% of the money coming in on the over.
Betting Trends
- Titans are 6-5 SU and 5-5-1 ATS this season
- Colts are 6-5 SU and 6-4-1 ATS this season
- Over is 6-5 in Titans games this season
- Over is 6-5 in Colts games this season
- Titans are 2-3 SU and 2-3 ATS in road games this season
- Colts are 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS in home games this season
- Under is 3-2 in Titans road games this season
- Over is 4-2 in Colts home games this season
*All trends are courtesy of Covers
Analysis & Picks
Just call them the cardiac Colts. Indianapolis has only played one game decided by more than 7 points this season, a 33-13 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars two weeks ago. That was also the Colts last win, but needless to say, Indy has a knack for playing close games this season. Normally that would push me towards the underdog in a tight divisional matchup, but in this case, with such a short line, no underdog value can be found by betting Tennessee. That pushed me back towards the home side, and as I dug deeper into the box score from the previous matchup this season, I noticed just how evenly matched these teams are. The Colts beat the Titans 19-17 back in Week 2, and held Tennessee to just 243 yards of total offense. Indianapolis was able to win the game despite losing the turnover battle 2-0. Granted, that was with Mariota under center, but Indy has owned this series regardless of who is under the center. The Colts are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 games against the Titans and 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings at Lucas Oil Stadium. Take the short home favorite here.
PICK: Colts -1.5 (-110)
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Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith
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