Getty Jonathan Williams of the Indianapolis Colts
The Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts are both still alive in the race for the postseason. The two division rivals meet on Sunday in Indianapolis with identical 6-5 records in what could be an elimination game for the loser. The Colts have lost three of their last four games and have had 10 days off since a 20-17 loss to the Houston Texans last Thursday. Meanwhile, the Titans have won four of their last five and are surging with Ryan Tannehill under center. Tannehill is completing 72.1% of his passes since taking over as the starter for Marcus Mariota.
According to ESPN’s FPI, the Colts have a 60.4% chance of winning this game. We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for Sunday’s AFC South matchup between the Colts and Titans.
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Titans vs. Colts Game Details
Date: Sunday, November 30
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, Indiana)
TV: CBS
Spread: Colts -1.5
Total: 42.5
*All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Line Movement
This line opened at Colts -3.5 and has been bet all the way down to Colts -1 at most books, according to VegasInsider.com. The action is split with the Colts receiving 55% of the bets and the Titans getting 56% of the money, according to The Action Network.
The total opened at 42 and has been bet up slightly to 42.5 at most books with 61% of the bets on the over and 57% of the money coming in on the over.
Betting Trends
- Titans are 6-5 SU and 5-5-1 ATS this season
- Colts are 6-5 SU and 6-4-1 ATS this season
- Over is 6-5 in Titans games this season
- Over is 6-5 in Colts games this season
- Titans are 2-3 SU and 2-3 ATS in road games this season
- Colts are 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS in home games this season
- Under is 3-2 in Titans road games this season
- Over is 4-2 in Colts home games this season
*All trends are courtesy of Covers
Analysis & Picks
Just call them the cardiac Colts. Indianapolis has only played one game decided by more than 7 points this season, a 33-13 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars two weeks ago. That was also the Colts last win, but needless to say, Indy has a knack for playing close games this season. Normally that would push me towards the underdog in a tight divisional matchup, but in this case, with such a short line, no underdog value can be found by betting Tennessee. That pushed me back towards the home side, and as I dug deeper into the box score from the previous matchup this season, I noticed just how evenly matched these teams are. The Colts beat the Titans 19-17 back in Week 2, and held Tennessee to just 243 yards of total offense. Indianapolis was able to win the game despite losing the turnover battle 2-0. Granted, that was with Mariota under center, but Indy has owned this series regardless of who is under the center. The Colts are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 games against the Titans and 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings at Lucas Oil Stadium. Take the short home favorite here.
PICK: Colts -1.5 (-110)
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