Nuggets vs. Mavericks Prediction: How We’re Betting This Western Conference Matchup

Denver Nuggets v Dallas Mavericks watch

Getty Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks host the Denver Nuggets Wednesday. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

The Dallas Mavericks are 3.0-point favorites over the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday night at American Airlines Center.

 Denver (25-11) is coming off an impressive performance on Monday in a 123-115 win over the Hawks. Nikola Jokic scored a career-high 47 points and did not commit a turnover in the win. Will Barton added a season-high 28 points on 12-of-20 shooting and added nine rebounds. The Nuggets lead the NBA in three-point defense (32.7%) and rank fifth in points allowed per game (105.2). Denver has struggled from the outside this season, ranking 21st in three-point shooting (34.9%).

Dallas (23-13) is coming off a 118-110 win over the Bulls on Monday in a game that saw star Luka Doncic record his ninth 30-point triple-double of the season, one more than the combined total for the rest of the NBA. Doncic recorded 38 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists for his 11th triple-double overall. Tim Hardaway Jr. returned after missing three games with a hamstring injury and scored 15 points in 22 minutes. The Mavericks are third in the NBA in scoring (116.7 per game) and fourth in rebounding (47.7 per game)

ESPN’s FPI gives Denver a 66.2% chance of winning this game. We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for Wednesday’s matchup between the Nuggets and Mavericks. 

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Nuggets vs. Mavericks Game Details

Date: Wednesday, January 8
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: American Airlines Center (Dallas, Texas)
TV: ESPN, Altitude, FS Southwest
Mavericks -3
Total: 217.5

*All lines, odds & trends courtesy of FanDuel, Covers, & The Action Network

Key Injuries


  • PF Paul Millsap (knee) probable
  • SG Will Barton (personal) out
  • C Bol Bol (foot) out


  • PF Kristaps Porzingis (knee) questionable
  • SF Isaiah Roby (foot) out
  • SG Ryan Broekhoff (fibula) out

Betting Trends

  • Nuggets are 25-11 SU and 14-18-4 ATS this season
  • Mavericks are 23-13 SU and 19-16-1 ATS this season
  • Under is 19-17 in Nuggets games this season
  • Over is 23-13 in Mavericks games this season

Analysis & Pick

This is an intriguing matchup featuring two of the best teams in the Western Conference not located in Los Angeles. Dallas could get Kristaps Porzingis back from a knee injury, which would be a huge boost. These teams last played back on October 29 with the Mavericks beating the Nuggets in Denver 109-106. Dallas tied a franchise record with nine double-digit scorers in the victory. That kind of balanced attack plus outstanding play from Luka Doncic has been a recipe for the Mavs success this season. I like their up-tempo offense in this matchup against the sluggish Nugget shooters. Gary Harris is just 5-for-24 over the past two games and Denver has one of the lowest three-point shooting percentages in the league. If Porzingis plays, I like this play even more, and if you think he will play, it’s best to bet this earlier in the day as I expect the line to move towards Dallas. Take the Mavericks.

PICK: Mavericks -3

READ NEXTKnicks vs. Lakers Prediction: How We’re Betting Lebron in Los Angeles

Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith

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