Nuggets vs. Warriors Betting Guide: Odds, Analysis & Pick

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Getty Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic

The Denver Nuggets are 4.5-point favorites over the Golden State Warriors on Thursday night at Chase Center.

Denver (28-12) is coming off a strong defensive effort in a 100-86 victory over the Hornets on Wednesday. Rookie Michael Porter Jr. scored 19 points filling the void for the injured Jamal Murray. P.J. Dozier made his season debut taking over for injured point guard Jamal Murray. Dozier scored 12 points in 13 minutes. The Nuggets have won 14 of their last 18 games. Denver leads the league in three-point defense (32.6%) and is third in scoring defense (104.9 points per game). The Nuggets are ranked 21st in scoring offense (108.9 points per game) and three-point shooting (34.6%).

Golden State (9-33) is looking to halt a nine-game losing streak after getting pounded 124-97 by the Mavericks on Tuesday. It was the second consecutive loss of at least 20 points for the Warriors, who are in danger of losing 10 straight for the first time since 2002. Jacob Evans is questionable after being taken to a nearby hospital on Tuesday with a facial injury suffered in the loss against Dallas. Evans was sin inadvertently elbowed in the face by Mavericks forward Dwight Powell. The Warriors are last in the league in field-goal defense (42.8%) and 28th in scoring defense (104.5 points per game). Golden State is ranked 29th in three-point shooting (37.7%) and 27th in rebounds per game (47.0)

ESPN’s FPI gives Denver a 65.3% chance of winning this game. We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for Thursday’s matchup between the Nuggets and Warriors. 

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Nuggets vs. Warriors Game Details

Date: Thursday, January 16
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Location: Chase Center (San Francisco, California)
TV: TNT, NBCS Bay Area, TSN1
Nuggets -4.5
Total: 213

*All lines, odds & trends courtesy of FanDuel, Covers, & The Action Network

Key Injuries


  • PG Jamal Murray (ankle) questionable
  • SG Gary Harris (groin) questionable
  • PF Paul Millsap (knee) questionable
  • Bol Bol (foot) questionable


  • SG Klay Thompson (knee) out
  • SG Jacob Evans (face) questionable
  • PF Kevon Looney (abdomen) questionable
  • PG Stephen Curry (hand) out

Betting Trends

  • Nuggets are 28-12 SU and 17-19-4 ATS this season
  • Warriors are 9-33 SU and 19-23-1 ATS this season
  • Under 23-17 in Nuggets games this season
  • Under is 25-17 in Warriors games this season

Analysis & Pick

The Warriors have won the last three meetings between these two teams, but this will be the first matchup this season. Michael Porter Jr. has started to emerge in his rookie campaign and is averaging 16 points over his past two games. Porter is finally seeing regular minutes in the Nuggets rotation and is providing a spark on both ends of the floor. The Nuggets defense should be the difference in this matchup. They are the best team in the league at defending the arc and the Warriors are one of the worst at shooting from the outside. It’s a bad matchup for Golden State and this is a short number for Denver to cover, with or without Jamal Murray.

PICK: Nuggets -4.5

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Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith

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