ESPN’s FPI gives Milwaukee a 51.8% chance of winning this game. We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for Tuesday’s matchup between the Bucks and Raptors.
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Bucks vs. Raptors Game Details
Date: Tuesday, February 25
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Scotiabank Arena (Toronto, Ontario)
Spread: Bucks -1.5
- C Brook Lopez (back) questionable
- SG Kyle Korver (back) out
- Bucks are 49-8 SU and 33-24 ATS this season
- Raptors are 42-15 SU and 33-24 ATS this season
- Over is 29-27-1 in Bucks games this season
- Over is 30-26-1 in Raptors games this season
Giannis Antetokounmpo struggled in last year’s East Finals in large part due to the Raptors throwing waves of defenders at him, the primary one being Kawhi Leonard. Giannis is coming off a tough game having fouled out with 1:33 left in regulation against the Wizards after collecting 22 points and 14 boards but also committing eight turnovers. Milwaukee went on to win the game in overtime without its best player on the floor.
Brooke Lopez missed Monday’s game against Washington with an ailing back and is not a sure thing to suit up on Tuesday. If Lopez sits, expect more opportunities in the middle for Giannis. The odds on favorite to win league MVP has recorded at least 14 boards in 10 straight games and is a good bet to exceed that total again on Tuesday.
PICK: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 13.5 Rebounds
Milwaukee runs its offense at the fastest pace in the NBA and has the third-best offensive rating in the league. Toronto’s defense is well equipped to keep the Bucks from running and has held two of its last three opponents to less than 100 points. The Under is 3-0 in the last three games for the Raptors.
The total has been a streaky bet for Milwaukee this season, who has cashed four of its last five games to the Over after a stretch of three straight Unders. This total is slightly inflated because of Milwaukee’s offensive prowess. The playoff atmosphere of this game will have an effect on both offenses down the stretch.
PICK: Under 231.5
This is a tough spot for the Bucks, are coming off a 137-134 overtime win over the Wizards on Monday and will be traveling to Toronto overnight for this important second game of a back-to-back. The Raptors are rested and rolling after a 127-81 blowout win over the Pacers on Sunday, their largest margin of victory (46 points) in franchise history. Toronto has won two straight since having their 15-game winning streak snapped in the final game before the All-Star break.
The Wizards erased a 17-point deficit against Milwaukee on Monday and even took a brief lead with 1:01 to play before eventually succumbing in overtime to the Giannis-less Bucks. Khris Middleton dropped 40 and scored the final nine points of the game to carry Milwaukee across the finish line.
Toronto has over-achieved as many expected them to fade without Kawhi Leonard in tow. In the absence of the Finals MVP, they have found second-life as one of the deepest and most disciplined teams in the league. This will be the first of three matchups between these two contenders over the final 25 games of the regular season. The Raptors have won nine straight games at Scotiabank Arena and are a good bet to make it 10.
PICK: Raptors +1.5
Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith