UFC 250 will take place on Saturday night at the APEX Training Facility in Las Vegas, Nevada featuring a Women’s Featherweight Championship bout between Amanda Nunes and Felicia Spencer. In a Co-main event Cody Garbrandt will square up with Raphael Assunco.
When the UFC started back to business in April, I’ll be the first to admit that I was fairly skeptical, from a wagering standpoint, that there was much value to be found in the first few events. It seemed like rather than trying to anticipate how individuals will react during unprecedented circumstances, the smart money was to stay on the sidelines. Essentially, there were just too many variables and no history or data from which to learn.
Now that the UFC has six weeks of events in the books, they’ve proven that they can hold successful shows. From a fighters standpoint, two essential things have changed as a result. First, short lead times and/or late opponent changes shouldn’t be an issue any longer simply due to the amount of time that has passed. Secondly, one has to imagine that safety concerns or apprehension have likely been quelled to some degree and possibly eased a mental burden for fighters. With those things in mind, it’s time to jump back in to the action.
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Preliminary Card Odds
Evan Dunham (+195) vs. Herbert Burns (-230)
Devin Clark (+190) vs. Alonzo Menifield (-220)
Jussier Formiga (+110) vs. Alex Perez (-130)
Maki Pitolo (+155) vs. Charles Byrd (-175)
Brian Kelleher (+220) vs. Cody Stamann (-260)
Alex Caceres (+160) vs. Chase Hooper (-180)
Main Card Odds
Eddie Wineland (+400) vs Sean O’Malley (-500)
Anthony Rocco Martin (+110) vs Neil Magny (-130)
Cory Sandhagen (-105) vs. Aljamin Sterling (-115)
Raphael Assunco (+120) vs. Cody Garbrandt (-140)
Felicia Spencer (+475) vs. Amanda Nunes (-650)
Best Bets UFC 250
Our analysis for finding value in UFC picks stays very simple. Felicia Spencer and Eddie Wineland are completely out of their depth, so we’re comfortable with the prices on these fights to not go the distance. Nunes is absolutely in the conversation for one of the greatest fighters in the women’s division history of the UFC; a wager on her to take care of business doesn’t need much explanation. In Eddie’s case, it has the feeling that the UFC needed to go quite a ways down the list of options to square up with O’Malley. This is as much a bet against Wineland as it is a bet on “Sugar” Sean to end it early.
Meanwhile, Cody Garbrandt hasn’t won a fight since 2016. At -140 it feels like the books are trying to convince the public that he’s still got it and inviting action by installing him as the short favorite. Sometimes it’s just as simple as being on the same side as the book.
Picks:
Nunes by TKO/KO/DQ -200
O’Malley by TKO/KO/DQ -120
Assunco ML +120
*Odds provided by William Hill
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UFC 250 Nunes vs. Spencer: Odds, Analysis and Picks