It’s the biggest week of the year in golf. And with how much LIV Golf has grown, the Masters is still even bigger. It’s the first time of the year that some of the game’s best on LIV Golf meet in the same field as the PGA Tour’s best. Our Augusta National preview will help make our projection model to identify the best bets to make at the 2024 Masters Tournament.
With the handful of competitive LIV golfers in the field and World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler‘s dominance, we’re getting much better odds on many players than we’ve been able to through much of the year. Below, we’ll identify the strengths that winners at Augusta need and the best outright bets to make for the 2024 Masters.
Augusta National Course Preview
GettyRory McIlroy at Augusta National.
Augusta National is the most famous golf course in the world and hosts the Masters Tournament every April for the game’s first major championship of the year. Designed by Alister MacKenzie and Bobby Jones in 1932, it has hosted the Masters since 1934.
The course plays as a Par 72 at 7,500 yards now, which makes it one of the longer courses you’ll see in golf. Augusta has continued to change drastically to keep up with the times and pose a true test to all of the world’s best players. But even with the increase in length, the green complexes have stayed mostly the same and remain the biggest challenge.
Driving distance is the stat that you don’t hear enough about around Augusta. Seven winners since 2010 were in the Top 6 in distance for the week. The other seven finished the week third, seventh, first, sixth, second, first and 19th in greens in regulations. You either need to bomb it off the tee or be very precise with finding greens to win.
Approach play is important on these undulated fairways into penalizing green complexes. But unlike most weeks when Strokes Gained: Approach or Opportunities Gained are the most important metric, finding greens in regulation is the key at Augusta. Missing a green here from only 15 feet away on the short-side can lead to disaster. Finding the green in the right spot is incredibly important.
But when players do inevitably miss greens, scrambling is always needed at Augusta. The tightly mowed grass around the greens with massive slopes creates very unique scrambling opportunities. Of the last 14 winners, 11 of them finished in the Top 10 in scrambling for the week. The other three were 12th, 15th and 16th for the week.
2024 Masters Best Outright Bets
GettyJordan Spieth hits a tee shot at the Valero Texas Open.
Here are the Masters best outright bets for 2024.
Jordan Spieth to Win (+2500)
Scheffler just isn’t really at a number this week that can be bet on. There are too many good players in the field for someone to be +450 odds, and the putter is still a big enough question mark to think he may not win. Instead of pivoting to a Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm or Brooks Koepka that could certainly win, Jordan Spieth at +2500 is much more interesting.
The 2015 Masters champion, like many top players, hasn’t had a great year. But he finished 10th at the Valero last week and finally had his ball striking reach the standard expected from him. Spieth has always been a streaky player, and those good feelings from the Valero could easily carry over to Augusta.
Spieth’s putter has often been the issue over the last few years as he became one of the better iron players in golf when in form. But the flat stick has been fantastic throughout 2024. When you consider his absurd course history, Spieth makes plenty of sense this week. He’s finished in the top 5 in six of his 10 tries at Augusta.
Matt Fitzpatrick to Win (+4000)
Matt Fitzpatrick’s increased distance and ability on and around the greens makes him a great fit for Augusta National. The 2022 U.S. Open winner struggled in 2023, but he fixed a weight issue in his clubs a few weeks back. Since then, he finished 5th at the PLAYERS and 10th at the Valero. The iron play looked good again, and the putter was at its typical elite level. He’s a player that can truly win this tournament with some great odds.
Dustin Johnson to Win (+4000)
The 2020 Masters winner hasn’t had a great year on LIV, but he did win in Las Vegas back in February. You get the feeling that Dustin Johnson gets his game ready for these major championships at this point in his career. Johnson has contended in a couple majors since leaving for LIV, and he finished 12th at Augusta in 2022 when out of form. These are way too big of odds for someone that is still a threat at any major.
Shane Lowry to Win (+6000)
The argument could be made that Shane Lowry has been one of the best couple iron players in the world over the last month. He’s gained 16.2 strokes on approach in his last three starts, which resulted in finishes of fourth, third and 19th. Lowry does lack the distance you prefer at Augusta, but his tidy short game can make up for it. He finished third here in 2022 and should love the firm conditions expected this week. The key will be the putter.
Comments
2024 Masters Tournament: Augusta National Preview & Best Outright Bets