Getty Images Paul Skenes
A growing trend in sports betting, alongside typical player bets such as home runs and strikeouts, is wagering on whether there will be no runs scored in the first inning. This type of bet is known as a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.
Below are a few NRFI bets our AI-powered projection model likes for the slate of games scheduled for Friday, July 5.
MLB NRFI Bets
New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Under 0.5 1st Inning Runs Scored (-160, DraftKings)
The New York Mets are set to go up against Paul Skenes, whose first-inning performance has shown mixed results. In his last five starts, he has given up runs in the opening inning in three of them. Despite this, he maintains an impressive strikeout rate early in games, which poses a challenge for the Mets, given their struggles against high strikeout pitchers. Among starters with more than five starts this season, Skenes ranks second in strikeout rate, trailing only Garrett Crochet. The Mets’ top four hitters all have strikeout rates exceeding 24%. While the Mets have shown improvement in first-inning performance over the past month, it remains uncertain whether they can translate this into scoring opportunities against Skenes’ formidable strikeout abilities.
Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Pirates will be facing Luis Severino, who has excelled in the first inning. His NRFI record stands at 14-2 this season and has been flawless over the last month. Despite the Pirates planning to field two to three left-handed batters against Severino, he has been exceptionally effective against them. He has held lefties to a batting average of just .161 and boasts a 24% strikeout rate, having issued zero walks to the 33 left-handed hitters he has faced in the first inning.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals Under 0.5 1st Inning Runs Scored (-130, DraftKings)
The St. Louis Cardinals will confront Patrick Corbin, a pitcher often criticized but surprisingly effective in the first inning. Over the past month, he has maintained a flawless record in the opening frame, and his NRFI record for the season stands at an impressive 15-2. Corbin typically handles right-handed batters well, although he tends to struggle more against lefties. However, in today’s matchup, he is likely to face just one left-handed hitter, Alec Burleson, who has struggled significantly in the first inning this season.
On the other side, the Washington Nationals have struggled considerably in the first inning against right-handed pitchers recently, with an NRFI record of 18-2 over the past month. They will face Sonny Gray, who has been flawless in the first inning over the last month. While Gray has been slightly more vulnerable to right-handed hitters, the Nationals lineup shouldn’t pose too many right-handed threats to him today.
NRFI Lock of the Day
Colorado Rockies vs. Kansas City Royals Under 0.5 1st Inning Runs Scored (-125, DraftKings)
The Colorado Rockies will take on Cole Ragans, who has shown reliability in the first inning this season, boasting a NRFI record of 13-5. This matchup appears promising because the Rockies have struggled significantly in the opening inning, especially against left-handed pitchers, where their wRC+ stands at a dismal 27, indicating they perform 73% below the league average in this scenario. Ragans seems well-equipped to navigate through this challenge.
On the other side, the Kansas City Royals will face Kyle Freeland in the first inning. The Royals have been similarly ineffective in the first inning recently, particularly against left-handed pitchers. In their last four first innings against lefties over the past 30 days, they have posted a shocking -21 wRC+. A negative wRC+ reflects exceedingly poor offensive production. Given these struggles, Freeland might find success against the Royals in the early stages of the game.
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MLB Best NRFI Bets for July 5