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Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for August 5. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
David Festa Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (+100, DraftKings)
David Festa has surpassed this line in 2 of his 3 big league games this season, averaging 6.33 HA per game. His expected batting average (xBA) stands at .284, which is not impressive.
The favorable odds for this line might be due to his recent performance against the New York Mets, where he allowed 3 hits. However, the Mets had a .338 xBA in that game, suggesting Festa was expected to give up about 5.75 hits based on the 18 at-bats they had against him.
The Chicago Cubs have exceeded this line in their last 5 games against right-handed pitchers (RHP). They have done so in 17 of their last 25 games against RHP when facing at least 19 total batters. Over the past 30 days, the Cubs rank 16th in batting average against RHP at .247. Since July 1, they rank 10th in expected batting average against RHP’s 4-seam fastballs, sliders, and changeups (.248), which are Festa’s primary pitches.
Lock of the Day
James Paxton Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (+100, DraftKings)
While James Paxton isn’t in peak form, returning to the Boston Red Sox could boost his performance for the rest of the season. The Red Sox have shifted their pitching strategy, moving away from heavy fastball usage, which was evident in Paxton’s first outing with them. Against Seattle, his use of the 4-seam fastball decreased from 57% to 47%, while his knuckle curve usage increased by 10%, from 29% to 39%. In the later innings of that game, these usage rates were 41% and 44%, respectively. This adjustment in pitch selection should benefit Paxton.
This change is particularly relevant given how these pitches have performed this season. The 4-seam fastball has yielded a .271 expected batting average, a .342 wOBA, and a 14.7% whiff rate, while the knuckle curve has produced a .224 expected batting average, a .263 wOBA, and a 36.1% whiff rate. Expecting Paxton to rely more on his knuckle curve going forward seems wise, especially against the Kansas City Royals, who struggle with curveballs. Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino have better numbers against curveballs with xBA values of .316 and .270, respectively, but other Royals hitters have an xwOBA below .260 against that pitch.
Moreover, this line seems high for Paxton, who is unlikely to pitch into the 6th inning. The Red Sox are 2.5 games behind the Royals for the final wild card spot and may manage this game with a postseason-like approach. With an off day on Thursday, they might use their bullpen more aggressively in this game.
Paxton faced 21 batters in his first start with Boston and has consistently faced around 21-22 hitters per game this season. He might be pulled when Witt Jr. comes up for the third time, especially since Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez have strong career numbers against Paxton. If this occurs, Paxton might face only 19 batters tonight. Given that the Royals rank 25th in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers since July, this would make it challenging for Paxton to allow more than 5 hits.
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MLB Best Player Prop Bets for August 5