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Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for July 2. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Brady Singer Over 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-135, DraftKings)
Brady Singer has surpassed this strikeout mark in 9 out of 16 games this season and in 6 out of 9 home games. His consistency at home is notable, recording 4 or more strikeouts in all 9 home starts.
Today, he faces the Tampa Bay Rays, known for their susceptibility to strikeouts against right-handed pitchers. They rank 9th in strikeout rate against righties for the season and 8th over the past month, making them a favorable matchup.
In the last 25 instances of right-handed pitchers lasting 5 or more innings against the Rays, 21 have exceeded this 4.5 strikeout line.
Tampa Bay’s metrics further support high strikeout potential, ranking 8th in swinging strike rate and 13th in called strike rate, while boasting the 2nd lowest ball in play percentage and 7th lowest contact percentage.
Although Singer doesn’t possess top-tier pitching attributes, he maintains an above-average strikeout rate this season. At home, he has excelled with a 2.80 ERA, .206 opponent batting average, and 9.05 strikeouts per 9 innings.
Singer consistently reaches over 17.5 outs per game and averages 18.2 outs per home start. He typically logs 6.03 strikeouts per 6 innings and now faces an advantageous matchup.
Kutter Crawford Over 16.5 Pitching Outs (-120, DraftKings)
Kutter Crawford has an ideal matchup against the Miami Marlins, who currently boast the most aggressive batting approach in the league over the past month. They hold the lowest walk rate at 4.0% (with the next closest at 6.2%) and the highest swing rate at 55.0% (compared to the next closest at 51.5%). Despite their aggressiveness, they’ve struggled with a 64 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers during this period, indicating a lack of offensive success.
For a right-handed pitcher like Crawford, there couldn’t be a more favorable opponent in terms of pitching deep into games. He has consistently pitched 6 or more innings in 10 of his last 12 starts, achieving this mark in each of his last 4 starts without exceeding 90 pitches. Crawford has been particularly efficient lately and should be well-rested following a rain-shortened outing on June 26th.
Crawford’s performance metrics are solid across the board, ranking from average to above average. With a zone rate of 53.1%, he’s likely to control the strike zone effectively against Miami’s aggressive lineup, minimizing walks and prolonging at-bats.
Lock of the Day
Alex Bregman Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI’s (-130, DraftKings)
Alex Bregman has been performing exceptionally well against right-handed pitchers, achieving this line in 17 out of his last 20 games. Since May 10th, he has averaged 2.19 hits + runs + RBIs per 4 plate appearances against righties. His OPS against right-handers stands at 0.757, which is significantly higher than his 0.589 OPS against left-handers.
Facing Jose Berrios adds to the attractiveness of this bet. Berrios has shown vulnerability against right-handed hitters, allowing a .280 batting average to them (.219 to left-handers). While not egregiously poor, this performance gap is enough to bolster confidence in Bregman’s ability to capitalize.
Berrios relies heavily on his sinker and curveball, pitches where Bregman has excelled. His season-average wOBA of .312 jumps to .352 against these pitches from May 10th onwards against right-handed pitchers.
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