Getty Mariners rookie Ryan Bliss
Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for July 22. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Andre Pallante Over 15.5 Pitching Outs Recorded (-120, DraftKings)
Andre Pallante has been dominant lately, particularly against the Pittsburgh Pirates, with a standout performance earlier this month. Excluding notable hitters like Oneil Cruz and the struggling Jack Suwinski, Pittsburgh as a team is batting just .162 against him. Pallante’s fastball-slider combination consistently troubles the Pirates’ lineup.
Recently, St. Louis Cardinals starters like Miles Mikolas, Sonny Gray, and Kyle Gibson have been allowed to pitch deep into games, with outings averaging around 18 to 21 outs. Manager Oli Marmol clearly supports this strategy, which is promising for Pallante’s start today.
Furthermore, statistics show that in the last six road games against the Pirates, starting right-handed pitchers have averaged close to 18 outs per game. Overall, in eight of the last ten games against Pittsburgh, right-handed starters have also exceeded this benchmark.
Pallante’s effectiveness against the Pirates, combined with the Cardinals’ strategy of letting starters work deep into games, suggests a favorable outlook for him today.
Bryce Miller Over 17.5 Pitching Outs Recorded (-115, DraftKings)
This wager seems promising for Bryce Miller, given his recent track record. This season, he has exceeded this line in 11 out of 19 games overall and in 7 out of 10 home games. It’s worth noting that his recent dip, being under this line in 4 of the last 5 games, is somewhat misleading. Two of those matchups were against tough opponents like Baltimore and Minnesota at home, and challenging outings versus Cleveland and Miami on the road.
At home, Miller boasts a stellar 2.10 ERA, with opponents hitting just .188 against him and a low .240 wOBA. Conversely, on the road, his numbers are less impressive with a 5.51 ERA, .250 opponent batting average, and a .321 wOBA.
Against the Los Angeles Angels this season, Seattle Mariners right-handed starters have thrived, with six out of seven outings lasting six innings or more. In five of those starts, they allowed zero earned runs, and in six, they gave up four hits or fewer. This underscores Seattle’s effective approach against Los Angeles hitters.
Earlier this season on June 2nd, Miller pitched six solid innings against the Angels at home, needing just 83 pitches. Facing him, Angels batters have struggled, with a mere .192 expected batting average and a .254 expected wOBA over 27 plate appearances.
Oddsmakers are predicting a strong outing for Miller, setting lines at 1.5 earned runs and 4.5 hits allowed. Historically, when Miller allows two or fewer earned runs, he surpasses the 17.5 outs mark in 10 out of 14 games.
NRFI Bet of the Day
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels Under 0.5 1st Inning Runs (-125, DraftKings)
Bryce Miller takes the mound for the Mariners, boasting an impressive 16-3 record on No Runs First Inning (NRFI) bets this season, including a perfect 10-0 mark at home. He faces the Los Angeles Angels, who have struggled, scoring in only 22% of their first innings and have a tough time against right-handed pitchers, ranking 24th in wRC+ and 22nd in OBP over the last two weeks. Miller has excelled at home with a stellar 2.10 ERA and limiting opponents to a .188 batting average.
On the other side, Tyler Anderson will be pitching for the Angels, carrying a solid 13-6 record on NRFI bets this season, with an impressive 7-1 record on the road. He faces a Mariners team that has been blanked in 80% of their first innings at home this season. Seattle ranks 27th in OBP against right-handed pitchers and has struggled to generate offense at home, scoring the second fewest runs in the league. Anderson boasts a 1.87 ERA on the road and has shown strong metrics in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, ranking in the 86th and 84th percentiles respectively.
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