Getty Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for July 29. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Tanner Bibee Over 17.5 Pitching Outs Recorded (-110, DraftKings)
Tanner Bibee has surpassed 17 outs in 4 of his last 5 road games, showcasing his ability to pitch deep into games away from home. He also achieved this mark against the Detroit Tigers earlier this season on July 10th, where he recorded 21 outs. Bibee has faced Detroit frequently, including twice already this month. In his most recent outing against them, he was pulled after just 5 innings due to muscle cramps. He had only thrown 67 pitches in that game, suggesting he could have easily surpassed the 17.5 outs threshold if he had remained in the game.
While there is a chance he could be pulled early again tonight, the conditions are less likely to be an issue. The Cleveland Guardians bullpen has been worked hard recently; they used 6 of their 7 bullpen arms yesterday. Over the past 3 days, the bullpen has been especially taxed, with 4 relievers throwing over 20 pitches each, and 2 of those having exceeded 30 pitches.
Given this heavy usage, the Guardians will likely rely on Bibee to pitch as deep as possible into the game, particularly against a Detroit team he knows well. The Tigers are struggling, ranking 23rd in wRC+ and 26th in OBP over the last two weeks, making them a favorable matchup for Bibee.
In the past, 4 consecutive right-handed starters have exceeded this outs number against Detroit, with 3 of those games occurring on the road. Bibee also has a strong strikeout rate against a significant portion of the Tigers’ lineup, with 5 out of 9 projected batters striking out more than 25% of the time against right-handed pitchers.
Lock of the Day
Paul Skenes Over 18.5 Pitching Outs Recorded (+135, DraftKings)
Paule Skenes has exceeded 18 pitching outs in 5 of 12 games this season, but he’s been especially strong recently, surpassing this number in 5 of his last 7 outings. The strategy with Skenes has been to let him pitch until he reaches a mid-90s pitch count; if he makes a mistake or starts to struggle, he’s typically pulled from the game. If he maintains a solid performance with a pitch count in the low 90s by the end of the 6th inning, he’s likely to continue into the 7th.
The Houston Astros lineup has been relatively ineffective against right-handed pitchers lately, with a modest 106 wRC+ and a .730 OPS over the past 30 days. Additionally, they have a notably low pitches per plate appearance (P/PA), which should work in Skenes’ favor.
Skenes has been particularly effective on the road, boasting a remarkable 0.86 ERA and a .173 wOBA. Given the odds, this is a great spot to back him. Walks are unlikely to be an issue for Skenes, as his under 1.5 BB prop is heavily favored at -174, and Houston generally doesn’t walk much.
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