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Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for July 6. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Gerrit Cole Over 17.5 Pitching Outs Recorded (-140, DraftKings)
Gerrit Cole’s outs recorded line against the Boston Red Sox presents a compelling opportunity despite recent challenges for the New York Yankees. While Cole has fallen short of this mark in all three starts this season, he has steadily increased his pitch count and workload, reaching 90 pitches in his last outing without restrictions expected today.
Boston has performed well against right-handed pitchers this season, ranking 12th in WRC+ and 8th in OBP, though they have shown a slight decline over the last 15 games to closer to league average. Notably, they have struggled with walks, ranking 22nd overall this season and 27th in the last 15 days.
Cole has exceeded this line in 81% of starts dating back to last season when pitching with a regular workload of 70+ pitches. The Yankees bullpen is depleted due to fatigue and injuries, with only a few reliable high-leverage options available. Despite some challenges, Cole has a history of pitching effectively deep into games against the Red Sox, often reaching the sixth inning. Additionally, facing several batters who lack experience against him could work to his advantage.
Drew Thorpe Over 15.5 Pitching Outs Recorded (-135, DraftKings)
Drew Thorpe’s line for pitching outs against the Miami Marlins present a solid betting opportunity. Thorpe has surpassed this mark in 2 out of 4 games this year, including consecutive starts. Combining his Minor League and Major League outings, he has exceeded 15.5 pitching outs in 11 out of 15 games, showcasing his consistent performance on the mound. Despite a rocky start in his first two MLB appearances, Thorpe appears to have regained his form recently.
Miami has allowed 12 out of the last 13 right-handed starting pitchers to exceed 15.5 pitching outs, with the past seven right-handed starters all pitching at least 6 innings. For instance, Nick Pivetta, who had a 16.5 pitching outs line on July 4, managed to pitch 7 innings. Thorpe has struggled with walks in his limited MLB starts, but Miami ranks poorly in walk percentage against right-handed pitchers over the last 30 days, sitting at the bottom with a 4.4% walk rate, which could limit free passes.
Moreover, Miami’s offensive struggles against right-handed pitchers are evident with the worst wRC+ (62) and OBP (.248) over the last 30 days.
Lock of the Day
Tyler Anderson Over 17.5 Pitching Outs Recorded (-100, DraftKings)
Despite being under in his last two starts, Tyler Anderson is poised to rebound for several reasons. Yesterday, the Los Angeles Angles bullpen was heavily taxed after Griffin Canning couldn’t make it through the 5th inning, forcing them to use four relievers to manage the late innings. With five out of their six bullpen arms having thrown 30 or more pitches in the last three days, they are likely to rely heavily on Anderson today, giving him a substantial opportunity to pitch deep into the game.
Anderson has demonstrated his capability this season, exceeding 17.5 outs in 4 out of his last 5 road games, averaging 20.2 outs per game in those outings. Overall, he has achieved this mark in 71% of his road starts this season, averaging 19.3 outs per game.
Moreover, recent history favors left-handed pitchers against the Chicago Cubs, with 9 out of the last 13 lefties surpassing the 17.5 outs mark, including 5 of the last 6 at Wrigley Field. The Cubs have struggled against left-handed pitching, ranking 23rd in wRC+ and 20th in OBP over the last 15 days, providing favorable conditions for Anderson’s bounce-back performance.