Getty Corbin Burnes pitching during an April 9 game against the Boston Red Sox.
Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for June 10. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Carlos Rodon Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105, DraftKings)
Carlos Rodon has been under this mark in 6 out of his 13 starts this year, with a particularly lower strikeout rate in away games, being under in 5 out of 8 starts. Moreover, last year, he was under in 10 out of 14 starts.
The Kansas City Royals, known for their resistance to strikeouts, boast a mere 15.6% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers over the last 30 days, ranking third lowest in MLB. Even more impressively, in the past week, their strikeout rate against lefties dropped to just 8.3%, albeit in a limited number of plate appearances. Despite facing the Royals last year and struggling, failing to record a single strikeout in that outing while giving up 8 earned runs in just 35 pitches, Rodon’s chances might not improve significantly this time around.
Corbin Burnes Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-150, DraftKings)
Corbin Burnes has consistently surpassed this mark in 10 out of 13 games this season, including all of his last eight and four out of five on the road. His road performance has been particularly impressive, clearing this threshold in 17 out of his last 20 starts away from home.
Facing the Tampa Bay Rays, a team struggling against right-handed pitchers, Burnes should maintain his consistency. Tampa Bay ranks poorly in wRC+ (28th) and OBP, indicating a favorable matchup for Burnes. However, Tampa Bay’s high P/PA and walk rates could potentially increase Burnes’ pitch count. Yet, Burnes has demonstrated the ability to pitch deep into games against similar teams, as seen in his recent outings.
Burnes has consistently thrown over 90 pitches in almost all of his starts this season, setting him up for success if he reaches the 95+ pitch mark today. His ability to induce ground balls pairs well against Tampa Bay’s high fly ball percentage, suggesting he can efficiently work through their lineup.
Lock of the Day
Seth Lugo Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-130, DraftKings)
In 2024, Seth Lugo has been solid, but underlying statistics suggest a forthcoming downturn. Lugo has been over this mark in 7 out of 13 outings, particularly struggling at home, where he’s been over in 5 out of 6 starts. Despite his impressive 2.13 ERA, his expected ERA (xERA) and expected batting average against (xBA) sit at 3.78 and .242, respectively, placing him squarely in the 52nd percentile.
Facing an excellent New York Yankees lineup, known for their dominance against right-handed pitchers with a stellar 128 wRC+ (best in MLB), .259 batting average (4th best in MLB), and .454 slugging percentage (best in MLB), Lugo’s chances of exceeding 5.5 hits allowed seem even higher. Moreover, recent trends indicate that 10 out of the last 13 right-handed pitchers facing the Yankees have gone over this line. Considering the Royals’ tendency to rely heavily on Lugo due to bullpen issues, compounded by their recent extra-inning game, the Yankees have a strong opportunity to exploit Lugo’s vulnerability and rack up hits.
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