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Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for June 11. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Bryan Woo Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-140, DraftKings)
Bryan Woo has showcased remarkable performance in his starts this season, demonstrating exceptional efficiency with consistently manageable pitch counts. His statistical prowess is evident, boasting a stellar 94th percentile expected batting average (xBA) of .188, complemented by an impressive 97th percentile barrel rate and a solid 76th percentile hard-hit rate. Opposing batters struggle to generate quality contact against him, further bolstering his reliability on the mound.
Moreover, Woo finds himself in a favorable matchup against the struggling Chicago White Sox offense. Recent performance metrics paint a bleak picture for Chicago’s hitters, ranking 27th in batting average against right-handed pitchers over the last two weeks, and similarly dismal figures over the past 30 days. This underscores the potential for Woo to exploit the weaknesses of a lineup that has faltered against right-handers.
However, one potential concern lies in the possibility of Woo facing a high volume of batters. While he demonstrates exceptional control and rarely issues walks, the aggressive approach of the White Sox lineup, known for swinging early in counts, may afford them increased opportunities to make contact. Despite this, Woo has consistently outperformed this line, allowing five or more hits at home in just 2 out of 10 starts since his rookie season, indicating his ability to navigate such challenges effectively.
Lock of the Day
Jordan Hicks Under 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-110, DraftKings)
Jordan Hicks’s pitching prowess showcases a striking contrast depending on the venue. While on the road, he flourishes with an impressive 11.06 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) and a formidable 26.8% strikeout rate (K%), demonstrating his ability to thrive under the pressures of opposing ballparks. However, when pitching at home, Hicks experiences a notable decline, with a reduced 5.72 K/9 and a modest 16.4% K%. These statistics underscore the influence of external factors, such as ballpark dynamics, on pitcher performance.
Moreover, Hicks’s advanced metrics offer further insights into his pitching capabilities. Despite his respectable overall performance, Hicks ranks in the 40th percentile for both Whiff% and K%, indicating room for improvement in generating swings and misses and overall strikeout efficiency.
The upcoming matchup against the Houston Astros presents a formidable challenge for Hicks. Although the Astros rank 28th in strikeout rate (K%) against right-handed pitchers (RHP) over the season and 16th in the last 15 games, recent trends suggest they may pose a formidable challenge. Following a challenging stretch against top strikeout pitchers, Houston’s hitters have adapted, with the last three starting RHP opponents failing to surpass four strikeouts. This trend highlights the Astros’ ability to adjust their approach and capitalize on pitching vulnerabilities.
Additionally, Hicks’s recent performance history raises concerns regarding his ability to pitch deep into games. Failing to clear six innings in seven consecutive outings, Hicks has struggled to maintain consistency in duration and effectiveness. In games where he pitches fewer than six innings, he has recorded fewer than 4.5 strikeouts in five out of six home starts this season, highlighting potential limitations in his strikeout potential when facing adversity or pitching under restrictive circumstances.
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