Getty The Yankees don't really need more rotation help before the trade deadline. Could they try to make a play for Garrett Crochet anyway?
Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for June 15. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Ryan Pepiot Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-110, DraftKings)
Ryan Pepiot has been a reliable force on the mound, consistently exceeding this mark in eight out of his last nine starts when fully available, a record that includes a perfect track record in all three of his road appearances.
Now, he faces off against an Atlanta Braves lineup that has been grappling with setbacks, losing impactful players such as Ronald Acuna Jr. and Michael Harris. Their struggles against right-handed pitchers are evident, ranking 17th in WRC+ and 18th in OBP for the season, and plummeting to near the bottom in these categories over the past 15 days. Furthermore, the Braves have shown a tendency to struggle with patience at the plate against righties, while Pepiot has demonstrated excellent control with just a 2.47 BB/9 rate this season.
Charlie Morton Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-110, DraftKings)
Charlie Morton has exceeded this mark in 9 out of 12 games this season, including 5 out of 6 at home, highlighting his consistent performance. In his last 10 home starts, Morton has also cleared 16.5 putouts 9 times, demonstrating his reliability in familiar surroundings.
The Tampa Bay Rays ranks 21st in wRC+ and 19th in OBP, although they excel in drawing walks. Morton’s recent five-walk game suggests he may focus on pitching within the strike zone today. Even when issuing 2 or more walks, he has surpassed 16.5 putouts in 6 out of 8 games this season.
Morton boasts a strong track record against Tampa Bay, with five projected batters yet to record a hit against him in multiple plate appearances. He has also cleared 16.5 putouts in 6 out of 7 career starts against the Rays. Recently, four of the last five starting right-handed pitchers have exceeded this line against Tampa Bay.
Despite Morton’s occasional issues with walks, he has consistently worked his way into six innings of play. Anticipate a standout performance against his former team, especially considering his slightly extended leash following his last start where he threw just 87 pitches.
Lock of the Day
Taijuan Walker Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-110, DraftKings)
This is a line that Taijuan Walker has already surpassed in 4 out of 7 games this season (63%), and he remains perfect on the road, achieving it in all 3 away starts this year, including 9 out of his last 10 road outings and 15 out of his last 20 overall.
The Philadelphia Phillies are counting on Walker to provide substantial innings today, as seen yesterday when Ranger Suarez delivered a strong performance, but the game went into extra innings, exhausting the Phillies bullpen with 5 out of 8 relievers used. Over the past three days, 6 out of 8 bullpen pitchers have thrown 20 or more pitches, with 3 of them nearing 30 or even 40 pitches.
Despite the Baltimore Orioles‘ formidable offensive capabilities, it’s noteworthy that in 5 out of the last 6 games where starting pitchers faced them, they exceeded the 16.5 outs line, with all 5 pitchers recording 18 or more outs. Furthermore, in 9 out of the last 13 games against the Orioles, starters have surpassed 16.5 outs.
Interestingly, the sportsbooks have all of Walker’s strikeout, earned run, and hits props favoring the over. This is encouraging given Walker’s recent performances where, despite allowing 8, 8, and 9 hits respectively in his last three away starts, he still managed to exceed the 16.5 outs mark.