Getty Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette
Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for June 19. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Luis Medina Under 16.5 Outs Recorded (-120, DraftKings)
Luis Medina has fallen short of this mark in two out of three games this season, particularly struggling in his lone home start where he pitched just 4.2 innings. Notably, he hasn’t managed to pitch six innings in any game this year.
His pitches per plate appearance (P/PA) stands at 3.986, indicating he tends to pitch to higher counts. Facing the Kansas City Royals, who excel against right-handed pitchers with strong statistics in OPS, average, slugging percentage, and isolated power (ISO), Medina faces a tough challenge.
Medina’s control has been an issue, walking a total of eight batters in just three games, five of those walks occurring in his brief home outing. The Royals exhibit disciplined plate discipline, ranking eighth in walk percentage against right-handed pitchers over the last 15 games and tenth over the last 30 games.
With a 5.87 ERA and 1.50 WHIP this season, Medina also struggles with ground ball percentage and hard-hit contact rate. Considering the bullpen had a day of rest recently and minimal usage the previous day, they should be well-rested and ready for action.
In the last 25 matchups, 18 right-handed pitchers have failed to meet this pitching outs line against the Royals.
Lock of the Day
Freddy Peralta Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-130, DraftKings)
While the Los Angeles Angels have struggled against right-handed pitchers this season, with a stretch where 13 out of 14 righty starters pitched six or more innings against them, this isn’t the main reason for betting on Peralta.
Milwaukee’s rotation has been plagued by injuries, using a league-high 13 different starters this season. With Corbin Burnes traded and Brandon Woodruff dealing with injuries, Peralta was expected to step up as their ace, although it hasn’t been smooth sailing.
Peralta’s biggest challenge has been his control issues, frequently running deep counts with nearly every batter seeing at least two balls. This has led to high pitch counts, but the Brewers tend to keep him in games until he runs out of steam. He’s been pulled in the middle of the sixth inning on five occasions this season.
In their recent game, the Brewers had to deploy three relievers in the ninth inning to secure the win, with closer Trevor Megill now unavailable for today’s game. Consequently, the Brewers are relying heavily on Peralta to pitch at least six innings both to bolster their chances of winning and to preserve their bullpen, which faces uncertainty with their rotation and no scheduled off days in sight.
Overall, the Brewers’ situation underscores the urgency for Peralta to eat up innings today, not only for the team’s immediate success but also for his own confidence.
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