Getty Detroit Tigers right fielder Riley Greene.
Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for June 9. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop bets
Jared Jones Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (-120, DraftKings)
In his last five starts, Jared Jones has exceeded this line in four, with two of those outings seeing him issue three or more walks.
The matchup against the Minnesota Twins adds to the challenge. They boast a lineup known for its plate discipline, leading to the highest walk percentage against right-handed pitchers over the last 15 games. Notably, in the last nine games and 24 games against right-handed starters who pitch for at least two innings, 16 instances saw those pitchers issuing two or more walks, surpassing this line against the Twins.
Minnesota’s batters exhibit patience, ranking among the MLB’s lowest in both first pitch swinging percentage and overall pitches swung at. They often find themselves ahead in counts, evident from their high counts of 3-0 and 2-0, which sets up scenarios favoring walks.
Examining Minnesota’s projected lineup, the majority of hitters demonstrate high walk rates against right-handed pitchers, with seven out of nine players having a walk rate of 8.1% or higher, and five out of nine exceeding 9.9%. Key threats like Carlos Correa and Carlos Santana possess particularly elevated walk rates against righties.
Furthermore, Jones’ performance at home raises concerns. In six home games, he has surpassed the 1.5 walks mark in four instances, including a streak of three consecutive games. Additionally, his home walk rate is 1.04 higher per nine innings compared to his performance on the road.
Lock of the Day
Freddy Peralta Over 6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-120, DraftKings)
Among the league’s elite, Freddy Peralta currently ranks within the top 6 in total strikeouts this season, boasting impressive metrics according to Savant. With a whiff rate of 33.6% and a strikeout rate of 32.7%, Peralta finds himself in the 94th percentile in both categories.
The Detroit Tigers, Peralta’s opponents, are prone to strikeouts, ranking 10th in the league in strikeouts per game. Their team strikeout percentage of 23.6% places them 8th in the MLB, setting the stage for a favorable matchup for Peralta.
Analyzing the Tigers’ expected lineup, several hitters demonstrate susceptibility to strikeouts against right-handed pitchers, with seven out of nine batters boasting strikeout rates of 20% or higher in a small sample size of 39 at-bats against Peralta.
This matchup presents a golden opportunity for Peralta to excel. Facing a Tigers lineup known for its lack of discipline and reluctance to swing at first pitches, Peralta can aggressively attack the zone early on. Anticipate another dominant outing from Peralta as he exploits the weaknesses of the Tigers, contributing to his impressive tally of strikeouts.
Given the favorable odds, this presents an excellent opportunity to capitalize on Peralta’s prowess against a team prone to strikeouts.