Getty Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson.
Baseball is back, and with another exciting day of games following a great Opening Day on March 28, there’s a plethora of intriguing player prop markets to explore. Let’s dive in.
Below are a few player prop bets our AI-powered projection model identified as offering an edge, ranging from superstars projected to exceed their expectations to some unexpected diamonds in the rough.
Rodón & Schwarber Could Struggle
Carlos Rodón: Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120, DraftKings)
Early in the baseball season, starting pitchers often don’t pitch deep into games, making betting on the under for pitcher strikeouts a viable strategy. In 2022, for example, the New York Yankees‘ Rodón pitched 5.0 innings in two of his four April starts, going 6.0 and 7.0 in the other two. Rodón, coming off a career-worst year and sidelined for months due to forearm and lower back injuries, is particularly suited for this strategy. The Houston Astros, known for having the third lowest strikeout percentage last season, pose a challenge for the Yankees starters in their opening series, so it’s unlikely Rodón will surpass 4.5 strikeouts or pitch deep into the game.
Bobby Miller: Over 1.5 Walks (-120, DraftKings)
Early in the season, it’s common for pitchers to issue a significant number of walks. Miller, entering his sophomore season with the Los Angeles Dodgers, possesses impressive control, evidenced by his 2.32 BB/9 rate last season, which is better than the league average. Additionally, he’s up against the formidable St. Louis Cardinals lineup, which ranked among the top 10 in BB% last season.
Matt Olson: Over 0.5 Hits (-175, DraftKings)
Olson, of the Atlanta Braves, enters their March 29 game riding high on an 12-game hitting streak dating back to the 2023 regular season and postseason. Olson, a left-handed hitter could be poised for success against the Philadelphia Phillies‘ Opening Day starter, Zack Wheeler, who allowed a .265 batting average to left-handed hitters, almost 70 points higher than against right-handed batters. Our model predicts a 77% likelihood of Olson getting a hit today, reflecting a substantial 36% variance from his typical performance.
Kyle Schwarber: Over 1.5 Strikeouts (-135, DraftKings)
The Phillies’ leadoff hitter will be up first against the Braves’ Spencer Strider, one of the game’s best pitchers. Strider’s got a mean slider, and Schwarber’s history against it isn’t pretty – just a .067 batting average and a sky-high strikeout rate of 43.5%. Last season, Schwarber struck out an average of 1.92 times per game facing the Atlanta Braves. Leading off means he’ll see a lot of action today, but it’s likely he’ll struggle against Strider’s tough pitching.
A.J. Puk: Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-165, DraftKings)
Puk is set to make his debut as a starter on the mound for the Miami Marlins on March 29, and I’m anticipating some impressive performances. He’s known as a high-strikeout pitcher, boasting a career 11.1 K/9 rate, consistently fanning batters across various levels of play. Additionally, the Pittsburgh Pirates‘ lineup is filled with players prone to strikeouts, particularly against left-handed pitchers, with a hefty 24% strikeout rate against them last season. So, it looks like Puk could have a field day on the mound against this lineup.
Parlay of the Day
Jose Ramirez + Mookie Betts: Both to Record a Hit (-112, DraftKings)
Ramirez and Betts both have favorable matchups today. Ramirez is facing the Oakland Athletics, against whom he has recorded a hit in 13 of the last 14 games. Betts has begun the season with 7 hits in 11 at-bats, and I anticipate this trend to persist, especially against a left-handed pitcher, considering his impressive 0.302 batting average against lefties last season. Our model suggests a 60% implied probability for both players to get a hit today.
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