Today, I’ve crafted a few Same Game Parlay (SGP) options using our AI-powered dfsPro model, which selects favorable combinations of at least 2 or more selections from the same MLB game. These SGPs offer the potential for enhanced payouts.
MLB Same Game Parlay Bets
Bobby Witt Jr. to Record a Stolen Base, Seth Lugo Over 5.5 Strikeouts, Under 8.0 Runs
Combined Odds (+931, FanDuel)
The upcoming match between the Kansas City Royals and the Chicago White Sox pits two struggling offenses against each other.
Bobby Witt Jr. shines as a beacon of hope for the Royals, boasting an impressive .599 wOBA after securing a significant 11-year $288.7 million contract extension over the winter. Witt Jr. exhibits exceptional ability to get on base consistently, coupled with remarkable speed, tying for the lead in sprint speed last season alongside Elly De La Cruz at 30.5 ft/sec. With already 2 stolen bases this season, Witt Jr. is a constant threat on the basepaths. Our predictive model indicates a 77% chance of him recording a hit and a 45% chance of stealing a base, rendering these probabilities highly valuable.
In a game where unexpected outcomes can sway the result, Seth Lugo might emerge as a surprise performer with a potential surge in strikeouts tonight. Lugo impressed in his debut with the Royals, delivering 6 scoreless innings with an 18.2% K-rate and 4 strikeouts. Although these figures may not be staggering, facing a weak White Sox lineup, which boasts the 3rd-highest strikeout rate (28%) and 5th-highest swinging strike rate (13.0%), could inflate Lugo’s strikeout count. His history suggests he could attain 6 strikeouts, a feat he achieved in 4 of his last 6 starts in 2023.
Despite the lack of star power in pitchers Mike Soroka and Seth Lugo, favoring the under seems prudent for this matchup. The White Sox currently rank last in runs scored (11) and possess a team OPS of .573, placing them 27th behind teams like the Oakland Athletics and Colorado Rockies. Additionally, the cooler temperatures in Kansas City on this early spring night could mitigate the ball’s travel distance, further supporting the likelihood of a lower-scoring game.
Pablo Lopez Under 5.5 Strikeouts, Cleveland Guardians Money Line
Combined Odds (+286, FanDuel)
Pablo Lopez undoubtedly possesses impressive pitching abilities, yet recent trends suggest he struggles against the Cleveland Guardians. Across 3 matchups last season, Lopez failed to achieve 5 strikeouts in any game. His historical performance against the current Guardians roster reflects an 11.8% strikeout rate over 68 plate appearances, which is less than stellar. While Lopez is unlikely to have a poor outing, the data favors betting on the under, especially considering the Guardians’ low strikeout rate of 16.4% this season, ranking 4th-lowest in the league.
Assessing this matchup early in the season proves challenging, but I lean towards favoring the underdog Cleveland Guardians over the Minnesota Twins, to maintain their momentum, given their past success against Lopez.
One Final Thought
Today’s MLB schedule might lack excitement, but anticipation builds for a promising lineup of games tomorrow, setting the stage for an enjoyable weekend of baseball ahead.
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MLB Best Same Game Parlays for April 4