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Strikeout prop bets rank among the most sought-after betting lines in baseball. These wagers involve predicting whether a starting pitcher will surpass or fall short of a specified number of strikeouts during a game.
Below are a few strikeout prop bets our AI-driven dfsPro model likes for the games scheduled for July 12. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Strikeout Prop Bets
Yonny Chirinos Over 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+100, DraftKings)
Yonny Chirinos has gone over this number in 3 of his 4 games this season, averaging exactly 5 strikeouts. Although he hasn’t pitched past the 5th inning, he has been effective when needed by the Miami Marlins.
Today’s matchup is ideal: a Cincinnati Reds team that strikes out frequently and a well-rested Miami bullpen. He doesn’t need to go deep into the game as long as he performs well early on. And why should he perform well? The Reds have struggled against right-handed pitchers, ranking 8th worst in K% over the last two weeks and 3rd worst for the season. Notably, seven straight righties have exceeded this strikeout total against Cincinnati when pitching at least 4 innings on the road. Plus, Yonny’s outs line is set high at 14.5, indicating confidence in his performance.
Additionally, 7 out of the last 10 right-handers facing the Reds on the road have gone over this line, and 15 out of 20 righties have exceeded it regardless of innings or location. If he can get 1 strikeout per inning, I can easily see Yonny surpassing this line, with 6 or even 7 strikeouts well within reach.
Strikeout Prop Bet of the Day
Cole Ragans Over 7.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-125, DraftKings)
Cole Ragans is in an excellent position to go over 7 strikeouts in this matchup, having exceeded this line in 8 out of his 19 starts this season. Facing the Boston Red Sox, who currently rank first in the league for strikeouts against left-handed pitchers, sets the stage perfectly for Ragans to capitalize on their weaknesses. As an elite strikeout pitcher, Ragans ranks among the top five in the league with 134 strikeouts, showcasing a remarkable ability to miss bats. His impressive 32.6% whiff rate places him in the 92nd percentile, while his 29.7% strikeout rate lands him in the 90th percentile, indicating his effectiveness on the mound.
The Red Sox lineup presents numerous strikeout opportunities. With a variety of hitters prone to swing and miss, this matchup could be one of Ragans’ best of the season. Each batter in the lineup is a potential target, contributing to the likelihood of him recording multiple strikeouts throughout the game. Notably, five hitters from the expected lineup have not faced Ragans before, which could give him a significant advantage, especially with his deceptive pitching style. His changeup has an impressive 48.6% whiff rate, further enhancing his chances of racking up strikeouts against this lineup.
Ragans’ performance should also benefit from the context of the game. As he takes the mound against a team that struggles significantly against lefties, he will likely be able to establish his rhythm early. The combination of his high strikeout rate and the Red Sox’s propensity to strike out against left-handed pitchers creates a favorable environment for Ragans to excel.
Overall, this bet looks very promising given the matchup dynamics. With Ragans facing the highest strikeout rate team in the league, he has a solid opportunity to dominate early in the game. If he can maintain his effectiveness and pitch deep into the outing, the potential for 6 or even 7 strikeouts seems well within reach. With the numbers and the matchup working in his favor, backing Ragans to go over 7.5 strikeouts is a strong play for tonight.
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