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Strikeout prop bets rank among the most sought-after betting lines in baseball. These wagers involve predicting whether a starting pitcher will surpass or fall short of a specified number of strikeouts during a game.
Below are a few strikeout prop bets our AI-driven dfsPro model likes for the games scheduled for July 20. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Strikeout Prop Bets
Logan Webb Over 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-115, DraftKings)
Logan Webb has surpassed this strikeout total in 9 out of his last 13 starts, indicating a strong trend in his recent performances. Facing the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field adds another layer of opportunity, as they rank among the highest in strikeout percentage against right-handed pitchers in the league.
Webb, typically known for inducing contact, may adjust his approach to capitalize on the Rockies’ propensity to chase pitches, especially in the high-altitude environment of Coors Field. With an average of 25.5 batters faced per game, Webb needs just a 23.5% strikeout rate to hit the over, which seems plausible given that 7 out of 9 Rockies batters in tonight’s lineup have strikeout rates above this mark, some even reaching into the thirties.
Previous encounters with the Rockies have shown Webb’s ability to notch strikeouts, bolstering confidence in his ability to exploit their lineup’s weaknesses tonight. Expect Webb to leverage his recent uptick in strikeouts against a Rockies team known for swinging aggressively, particularly in their home ballpark.
Brady Singer Over 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-120, DraftKings)
Brady Singer has exceeded this strikeout line in 10 out of 19 games this season and maintains a solid average of 5.2 strikeouts per start. At home, he has been particularly effective, surpassing 4 strikeouts in every one of his 10 starts and boasting an impressive 8.90 K/9 rate. Singer’s strikeout percentage (K%) for the season stands above average at 22.6%.
Today, he squares off against the Chicago White Sox, who rank 7th highest in strikeout percentage against right-handed pitchers over the last two weeks and 9th highest over the past month. Additionally, Chicago ranks last in both on-base percentage (OBP) and weighted runs created plus (wRC+) when facing righties this season.
In the last five games, four right-handed pitchers have exceeded the 4.5 strikeouts mark against the White Sox, and in the last 25 games where a right-handed pitcher has thrown at least 5 innings against them, 20 have hit this strikeout total.
Chicago also swings at a high percentage of pitches but has below-average contact rates and ball in play rates. Singer has previously exceeded this strikeout total in 1 out of 2 games against the White Sox this season, with the most recent success coming in mid-April. In the other game, he was limited to 72 pitches.
Given Singer’s strong performances at home and the White Sox’s current offensive struggles against right-handers, particularly in striking out, this appears to be a favorable matchup. Despite a well-rested bullpen, Singer is likely to pitch deep into the game, potentially into the 6th inning or beyond.
His teammate, Michael Wacha, recorded 7 strikeouts in the first game of this series on Friday, further highlighting the potential for Singer in this favorable pitching environment.
NRFI Bet of the Day
Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals Under 0.5 1st Innings Runs (-120, DraftKings)
MacKenzie Gore gets the start for the Washington Nationals, boasting an impressive 17-2 record on No Run First Inning (NRFI) bets this season, including an 11-1 mark at home. He’ll be up against the Cincinnati Reds, a team that has been shut out in 76% of their road first innings and in 9 out of their last 10 overall. The Reds have struggled against left-handed pitching lately, ranking 24th in wRC+ and 27th in OBP over the past two weeks. Gore himself ranks highly in strikeout percentage (K%) and fastball velocity, sitting in the 78th and 88th percentiles, respectively.
On the other side, Nick Lodolo takes the mound for the Reds with a solid 9-5 record on NRFI bets this season, including a 3-2 record on the road. He’ll face a Nationals lineup that has been scoreless in a staggering 85% of their first innings this season and in 8 out of their last 10 games overall. The Nationals have struggled against left-handed pitching as well, ranking 27th in wRC+ and 20th in OBP over the last two weeks. Lodolo has excelled with a 2.27 ERA and a .159 opponent batting average (OBA) on the road, supported by his strong xERA and xBA percentiles of 70th and 74th, respectively.
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