Getty Nestor Cortes
Strikeout prop bets rank among the most sought-after betting lines in baseball. These wagers involve predicting whether a starting pitcher will surpass or fall short of a specified number of strikeouts during a game.
Below are a few strikeout prop bets our AI-driven dfsPro model likes for the games scheduled for July 7.
MLB Strikeout Prop Bets
Brady Singer Over 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-125, DraftKings)
Brady Singer has surpassed this strikeout line in 9 out of 17 games this season, and he has achieved 4 or more strikeouts in 15 out of 17 games. His season-long K/9 rate stands at 8.49, showcasing above-average strikeout ability. Facing the Colorado Rockies adds to his advantage, as they rank fourth highest in strikeout percentage (K%) against right-handed pitchers for the season and seventh highest over the past two weeks.
Analyzing the Rockies’ lineup reveals that 5 out of 9 projected batters have a strikeout rate of 27% or higher, with 7 out of 9 at 23% or more. Historical data also supports Singer’s potential: in the last 25 instances of right-handed pitchers lasting 5 or more innings at Coors Field, they have consistently met or exceeded the 4.5 strikeout mark against the Rockies.
Despite the challenge of pitching at Coors Field, Singer’s track record of pitching at least 5 innings in 16 out of 17 starts this season provides confidence that he will have ample opportunities to accumulate strikeouts. His skill set suggests he could approach or even exceed a strikeout per inning against a Rockies team known for high swinging strike rates and low contact rates.
Graham Ashcraft Under 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-120, DraftKings)
Throughout this season, Graham Ashcraft has struggled to surpass the 4.5 strikeouts threshold, achieving it in only 29% of his appearances and managing to do so just once in his last eleven outings. His performances at home have been notably lackluster, as he has only cleared this line in 1 out of 5 games and has fallen short in his last four consecutive home starts. On average, Ashcraft records a modest 3.6 strikeouts per game in his home appearances this season, underscoring his challenges in meeting higher strikeout expectations.
Despite facing the Detroit Tigers, who exhibit the eighth highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the season and the thirteenth highest over the past 15 days, recent data further diminishes Ashcraft’s prospects. The Tigers have effectively neutralized opposing pitchers, preventing six out of their last seven opponents from reaching their respective strikeout lines.
NRFI of the Day
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners Under 0.5 1st Inning Runs (-125, DraftKings)
George Kirby takes the mound for the Seattle Mariners, boasting impressive stats with a 15-3 record on No Run First Innings (NRFIs) this season, including a stellar 7-1 record at home. He faces the Blue Jays, who have been held scoreless in a remarkable 84% of their road games this year. Kirby has excelled at home with a 2.40 ERA and opponents’ batting just .210 against him. He ranks in the 99th percentile for walk percentage (BB%) this season and in the 71st percentile for expected ERA (xERA), highlighting his strong control and effective pitching metrics.
On the other side, Jose Berrios takes the mound for the Toronto Blue Jays and has been similarly dominant with a 14-4 record on NRFIs. He confronts a Mariners team that has been shut out in 79% of their first innings at home this season. Berrios ranks in the 74th percentile for BB%, demonstrating good command. The Mariners have struggled offensively, ranking 26th in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) and 25th in on-base percentage (OBP) against right-handed pitchers over the last two weeks. Notably, they hold the highest strikeout rate (K%) against right-handed pitchers throughout the entire season.
This matchup sets the stage for a pitching duel where both Kirby and Berrios have shown strong NRFI performances and face off against lineups that have struggled to produce runs and get on base recently.
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MLB Best Strikeout Prop Bets for July 7