Getty Chicago Cub Lefty Shota Imanaga
Strikeout prop bets rank among the most sought-after betting lines in baseball. These wagers involve predicting whether a starting pitcher will surpass or fall short of a specified number of strikeouts during a game.
Below are a few strikeout prop bets our AI-driven dfsPro model likes for the games scheduled for May 24.
MLB Strikeout Prop Bets
Shota Imanaga Over 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-124, DraftKings)
In 6 out of 9 starts this season, Shota Imanaga has exceeded this mark. Notably, in one instance where he fell short, he only pitched 43 pitches, indicating potential for more strikeouts given a full outing.
Facing the St. Louis Cardinals, who rank 14th in MLB for highest strikeout percentage, further enhances Imanaga’s prospects. Three Cardinals batters, Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Gorman, and Michael Siani, boast K-rates over 23% against left-handed pitchers. Additionally, the Cardinals have no prior experience against Imanaga, potentially putting them at a disadvantage against his pitching arsenal.
Imanaga’s impressive whiff rate of 31.4%, strikeout rate of 27.8%, and chase rate of 36.1% underscore his ability to generate strikeouts effectively this season.
Moreover, the Cardinals have yet to face a left-handed starter of Imanaga’s caliber, making his unfamiliarity to them an added advantage. Given these factors, this line has excellent value for Imanaga, who has consistently surpassed it throughout the season.
Kutter Crawford Over 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-200, DraftKings)
Kutter Crawford surpassing this line presents a compelling opportunity, especially against the Milwaukee Brewers, who have shown vulnerability to right-handed pitching with the 9th highest strikeout percentage over the past 14 days.
In his previous encounter with the Brewers, Crawford secured 2 strikeouts while facing just 7 batters, a rate that could potentially translate to 6.8 strikeouts if he maintains his average of 23.9 batters faced per game.
Notably, Crawford has exceeded or met this 5.0 strikeout line in 9 out of 10 games this season, boasting an average of 5.7 strikeouts per game. Additionally, he has achieved this feat in 77% of his games since 2022 when he has thrown 60 or more pitches.
Lock of the Day
Alek Manoah Over 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+100, DraftKings)
Alek Manoah has shown consistency in surpassing this line in all three of his starts in 2024. Looking back at his last six road games dating to 2023, he has exceeded this mark in five out of six starts. His expected earned run average (xERA) stands at 3.68, with an expected batting average against (xBAA) of .220, indicating his effectiveness on the mound.
Notably, Manoah has adjusted his approach this season, focusing more on generating called strikes rather than relying solely on strikeouts. In 2024, he has accumulated 47 called strikes compared to 34 whiffs.
The Detroit Tigers have displayed vulnerability to strikeouts recently, ranking 11th highest in strikeout percentage against right-handed pitchers over the last 30 days, at 23.7%. Moreover, in the same timeframe, they rank second highest in called strike percentage (18.5%) and seventh highest in called strikes plus whiffs percentage (28.5%).
Analyzing their expected lineup reveals that seven batters have struck out over 19% of the time against right-handed pitchers in the last 14 days, with four exceeding a 25% strikeout rate. Notably, Jake Rogers, expected to start, has an impressive 58.3% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the last 14 days.
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