Getty Dodgers RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (right) struggled in his 2024 debut.
Strikeout props rank among the most sought-after betting lines in baseball. These wagers involve predicting whether a starting pitcher will surpass or fall short of a specified number of strikeouts during a game.
Below are some of the standout strikeout props recommended by our AI-driven projection model for today’s MLB matchups.
MLB Strikeout Bets
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+142, FanDuel)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the promising rookie right-hander for the Los Angeles Dodgers, is gearing up for his 4th start of the season, facing the San Diego Padres once again. While his initial encounter with them didn’t go as planned, resulting in an early exit after just 1 inning, I attribute that performance to the challenges of a short spring training and debut nerves. However, Yamamoto has shown significant improvement in his next 2 starts following the opening disaster, tallying 13 strikeouts over 10 innings pitched. Even in his tough outing against the Padres, he managed to strike out 2 of the 9 batters he faced, indicating potential for a better performance this time around.
Yamamoto has demonstrated his ability to induce swings and misses, boasting impressive rankings in both strikeout percentage (86th percentile) and whiff percentage (81st percentile). Considering the Padres’ 7th-place ranking in strikeout percentage this season, I anticipate Yamamoto making adjustments and piling up strikeout
s. Our model projects him to record 5 strikeouts, which is a 0.5 difference from the line.
Reid Detmers Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-170, FanDuel)
Reid Detmers has kicked off the season in impressive fashion and is set to take on the Boston Red Sox once again, following a dominant performance against them less than a week ago where he notched 12 strikeouts and induced 19 whiffs. While opposing offenses typically adjust when facing a pitcher for the 2nd time in quick succession, Detmers still seems poised to exceed his strikeout projection, even if the Red Sox manage to make some adjustments.
Moreover, the Red Sox lineup appears to be struggling, evident in their recent sweep by the Baltimore Orioles where they struggled against pitchers like Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez. With the Red Sox currently ranking 4th highest in strikeout percentage (26.35%), Detmers should have ample opportunity to capitalize. According to our model, Detmers is projected to record 6.3 strikeouts, indicating a 0.8 difference from the line.
Lock of the Day
Luis Severino Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-142, FanDuel)
Luis Severino is gearing up to face the formidable Kansas City Royals offense, currently riding high with the 6th-highest run tally in the league and an 8th-place ranking in batting average. Their recent offensive outbursts, averaging 12 runs over their last 2 games against the Houston Astros, underscore the challenge Severino will face on the mound.
Despite the Royals’ prowess at the plate, they also boast the 4th-lowest strikeout rate in the MLB, presenting a formidable obstacle for Severino. Each batter in their lineup demonstrates consistency, with none batting below a .230 average, indicating their ability to make contact against Severino, who has a career strikeout rate of 15.9% against 7 of the 9 batters in the Royals lineup.
Severino’s history with a strikeout line set at 5.5 is not particularly encouraging, having surpassed it only once in 13 games last season. Additionally, he holds an 0-2 record with this line against the Royals in his last 2 starts against them. Our model projects Severino to tally 4.4 strikeouts, indicating a notable difference of 1.1 from his line.
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MLB, Sports Betting, DFS