Getty Images Arik Armstead #91 of the San Francisco 49ers (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)
The NFC West division champion San Francisco 49ers (12-5) play host to the Green Bay Packers (9-8) in the NFC Divisional playoffs at 8:15 p.m. Eastern time on Saturday, January 20.
Green Bay arrives in Santa Clara, Calif. riding the momentum of beating the Dallas Cowboys in blowout fashion, 48-32, in the NFC Wild Card round. Meanwhile, the 49ers had the benefit of the bye week after finishing as the top seed in the NFC.
Heavy Sports’ projections model, powered by our partners at Quarter4, gives the 49ers a 73% win probability over Packers, to advance to the NFC Championship Game.
Here are five AI-powered predictions we have forecasted using the model.
1. Brock Purdy Will Light Up Packers’ Secondary
In the Wild Card Game, the Packers gave up 403 passing yards to Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott — albeit 316 of those yards came after halftime with the Cowboys trailing 27-7 and Prescott already tossing two interceptions.
However, even after Prescott spent the second-half padding stats, our model projects the Packers’ defense will once again struggle against the pass with 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy picking up where he left off from a prolific regular season.
Purdy projections: 22.4 completions, 287.4 passing yards, 1.9 touchdowns, 0.8 interceptions, 72.7 completion percentage, 2.7 sacks
If Purdy reaches those benchmarks projected by the Heavy Sports model, the 24-year-old would surpass his season average in each of the above categories.
Purdy enters Saturday night’s contest as the NFL’s highest-rated passer, with a 113 quarterback rating, after passing for 4,280 yards with 31 touchdowns to 11 interceptions at the helm of the 49ers’ prolific offensive attack.
2. Packers Wide Receivers Will Struggle
With the exception of Romeo Doubs‘ 151-yard explosion, the Packers’ receivers were a bit of a non-factor in Green Bay’s win over the Cowboys.
While Jordan Love finished with a nearly perfect 157.2 passer rating with 272 yards and three touchdowns, Packers wide receivers not named Doubs only accounted for 41 of those yards. Packers leading receiver Jayden Reed was held off the stat sheet entirely.
Our model expects much of the same from the Packers’ receiving corps against the 49ers.
Doubs projections: 3.1 receptions, 54.5 receiving yards,0.5 touchdowns
Watson projections: 2.6 receptions, 35.6 receiving yards, 0.8 touchdowns
Reed projections: 3.8 receptions, 45 receiving yards, 0.6 touchdowns
While tight end Luke Musgrave’s return has given the Packers’ passing game a boost, it might be difficult for Green Bay to pull off the upset if Love’s top three wide receivers combine for just 135.1 yards.
San Francisco’s defense enters the postseason as the NFL’s No. 14 ranked passing defense, allowing 214.2 yards per game.
3. Arik Armstead Will Wreak Havoc in Return
The 49ers have been without Arik Armstead since the veteran defensive end suffered a knee injury and a foot injury in a Week 14 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles, but Armstead is making progress to returning Saturday night.
If Armstead is able to get back on the field for the divisional game, our model projects him making a significant impact.
Armstead projections: 2.9 total tackles, 0.9 sacks
Both of those totals would surpass Armstead’s season average per game. Armstead appeared in 12 games for the 49ers during the 2023 campaign, finishing with 27 total tackles and 5.5 sacks.
4. Brock Purdy Will Make Packers CB Carrington Valentine a Frequent Target
The 49ers wide receiver corps can put all kinds of pressure on even the best secondaries.
Given that Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and tight end George Kittle combined for 284 receptions for 3,254 yards and 20 touchdown receptions, it’s easy to see why the 49ers’ passing game was among the most prolific in the league.
Saturday night, the Heavy Sports model expects Purdy to go after Packers cornerback Carrington Valentine.
Valentine projections: 4 total tackles, including 3.1 solo tackles, 0.7 pass breakups
Those numbers would surpass Valentine’s per-game average in every major statistical category.
Valentine has been more than up to the task this season, as Pro Football Focus points out, the seventh-round rookie has held opposing quarterbacks to an 84.1 passer rating when targeting him and opposing receivers to just 12 yards per reception.
The Game Will be Decided by Less Than a Touchdown
San Francisco opened as a 10-point favorite in this game, and the line at major Las Vegas sports books has held pretty steady, with the consensus point spread sitting at 9.5 points.
However, our model expects the game to be a field goal closer than Las Vegas, installing the 49ers as just a 6.5-point favorite. Similarly, the Heavy Sports model projects the total to be a field goal higher, at 53.5 points against the Vegas consensus of 53.5.
Here’s a look at how the models are comparing for Sunday:
* The Heavy data point is a projected spread powered by Quarter4. The other outlets in the table are all sportsbooks.