5 AI-Powered Super Bowl Predictions for Chiefs vs. 49ers

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Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (left) & 49ers QB Brock Purdy (right).

In a rematch of the big game in 2020, the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers are set to square off in the 2024 Super Bowl on Sunday, February 11.

Here are five Super Bowl predictions, powered by Heavy’s dfsPro Daily projections:

1. There Will Be More Scoring Than the Vegas Consensus Expects

All seven major sportsbooks in Heavy’s database are hovering at 47.5 total points for Sunday’s matchup. Our model is forecasting more scoring, with a projected 50.5 over/under total as of Saturday, February 10.

During the 2024 playoffs, Kansas City has averaged 23.3 points in its three wins, while San Francisco has averaged 29.0 points in its two wins.

In the regular season, San Francisco ranked 3rd in the NFL in average points (28.9) compared to Kansas City’s 21.8 points per game, which ranked 15th.

2. Christian McCaffrey & Isiah Pacheco Will Each Rush for 70+ Yards & Score on the Ground

McCaffrey, the NFL’s rushing yards (1,459) and all-purpose TD leader (21) in 2023, has ecplised 70 or more rushing yards in 13 of his 19 games this season, including 9 of his last 10 games.

Pacheco, who led all Chiefs’ skill-position players with 9 TDs during the regular season, had surpassed 70 rushing yards seven times this season (including playoffs).

On Super Bowl Sunday, our model likes the over for both running backs, plus at least 1 rushing touchdown each:

C. McCaffrey projections: 88.0 rush yards, 1.1 TD, 5.9 rec, 50.5 rec yards, 0.7 TD

I. Pacheco projections: 69.9 rush yards, 1.1 TD, 3.0 rec, 11.9 rec yards, 0.2 TD

3. Patrick Mahomes & Brock Purdy Will Combine for 3 or Fewer Passing Touchdowns

In the last 10 Super Bowls dating back to Seahawks-Broncos in 2014, five of them saw at least 4 combined passing touchdowns. At least one QB threw for 3 passing touchdowns in five of them, as well.

Neither happened during the 2020 Super Bowl between these teams, and Heavy’s model sees no such thing happening with these passers on Sunday either:

P. Mahomes projections: 26.4 comp, 273.1 pass yards, 1.6 TD, 0.2 INT, 24.0 rush yards

B. Purdy projections: 22.9 comp, 267.6 pass yards, 1.3 TD, 0.6 INT, 16.1 rush yards

Much to the surprise of the most casual football fans, Mahomes, who has thrown for 3 TDs in 40.7% of his 113 career starts, has only done it twice in 19 starts this season — and not since October 22, 2023 against the Chargers.

Purdy threw for 3-plus TDs five times during the 2023 regular season.

4. Rashee Rice Will Lead All Pass-Catchers in Receptions & Receiving Yards

While the 49ers defense was stingy in average points allowed (17.5; 3rd) and average yards allowed (303.9; 8th), it was favorable toward wide receivers in 2023, allowing the 5th-most receptions (236) and tied-6th-most receiving TDs (17) on the 6th-most targets (361) to the position.

In a game full of star-studded pass catchers, it’s Chiefs breakout rookie Rashee Rice who our model likes as Sunday’s leading receiver:

R. Rice projections: 6.9 catches, 86.9 receiving yards, 0.5 TDs

Among the rest, our projections favor 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk the most:

B. Aiyuk projections: 5.9 catches, 84.2 receiving yards, 0.9 TDs

G. Kittle projections: 5.2 catches, 70.9 receiving yards, 0.6 TDs

T. Kelce projections: 5.6 catches, 63.0 receiving yards, 0.7 TDs

D. Samuel projections: 6.0 catches, 62.0 receiving yards, 0.6 TDs

5. The 49ers Will Win by a Field Goal or More

Sunday marks the second-ever playoff matchup between the Chiefs and 49ers, both of which have come in the Super Bowl in the last four years.

According to Pro Football Reference, the all-time regular season series between the two franchises is split 7-7, with Kansas City holding the points advantage 318 to 268.

As of Saturday, February 10, our model has a projected point spread of 49ers by 5 points. That’s more than double every sportsbook in our database, which currently list the 49ers as 1.5-to-2-point favorites.

Here’s a look at how the model compares:

* The Heavy data point is a projected spread powered by Quarter4. The other outlets in the table are all sportsbooks.