5 AI-Powered Predictions for Packers vs. Vikings: Week 17

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Packers QB Jordan Love (left) & Vikings QB Jaren Hall (right).

The Green Bay Packers (7-8) travel to face the Minnesota Vikings (7-8) for a high-stakes Sunday Night Football game in Week 17.

Both teams will finish the 2023 regular season with two divisional matchups. Both teams also hold between a 25% chance (Vikings) and 32% chance (Packers) at a playoff berth, per the New York Times playoff simulator.

Those odds jump to 95-96% if either team wins out.

In anticipation, here are five predictions generated by Heavy Sports’ AI-powered projections model, powered by our partners at Quarter 4:

1. Ty Chandler Will Continue to Shine for Vikings

Injuries to its three biggest stars have decimated Minnesota’s offense for much of this season: Kirk Cousins (torn Achilles; IR), T.J. Hockenson (torn ACL; IR) and Justin Jefferson (will play).

The Packers’ run defense has had more holes than a block of Swiss cheese in 2023, allowing the third-most yards per game on the ground (139.5).

Heavy’s model likes RB Ty Chandler, who has mostly split backfield duties with Alexander Mattison (questionable) since November 11, as a “diamond in the rough.”

Our projections peg Chandler for a big game with 57.2 rushing yards, a total he’s surpassed only twice in 18 career games. Both of those games, though, came against bottom-7 run defenses:

• Week 12 vs. Broncos: 10 carries, 73 yards, 4 receptions, 37 rec. yards
• Week 15 vs. Bengals: 23 carries, 132 yards, 1 TD, 3 receptions, 25 rec. yards

With 2 of his 3 rushing TDs coming in the last two games, we also like the over on Chandler’s chances to find the end zone.

2. With Jaren Hall as Starting QB, Justin Jefferson Won’t Post Huge Numbers

The Vikings have named rookie Jaren Hall as their starting QB on Sunday night over Nick Mullens. Hall saw his first career game action in Week 8 in Green Bay, when he replaced the injured Kirk Cousins. He completed 3-of-4 passes for 23 yards in mop-up duty.

Because of the uncertainty, the model is bearish on a potential monster game from WR1 Justin Jefferson — even with Packers star CB Jaire Alexander suspended for the game.

The model predicts the following for Jefferson: 5.5 receptions (his average through 8 games this season is 6.3); 86.9 receiving yards (102.8); and 0.9 receiving TDs (0.5).

Even with an increased chance of finding pay dirt and four 140-yard games this season (including last week), the projections like the Packers’ chances at containing Jefferson.

Green Bay currently boasts the NFL’s 13th-ranked passing defense.

3. The Packers Will Spread the Love on Offense

Despite a mostly rollercoaster season for Packers QB Jordan Love, the first-year starter has been efficient over his last 6 games. During that span, he has completed 67.4% of his pass attempts, averaged 263 passing yards and posted a 13-1 TD-to-INT ratio.

Heavy’s projections side with the under on Love’s passing yards average (239.1) with 232.3 projected for Sunday. He’s being given only a 19% chance to surpass 300 yards.

However, the model likes the over on total completions at 22.1. He may be forced to spread the wealth, though.

Green Bay’s Week 17 injury report is littered with key pass-catchers:

• WR Christian Watson (doubtful)
• TE Luke Musgrave (doubtful)
• WR Dontayvion Wicks (questionable)

That leaves Green Bay down to WR Jayden Reed, WR Romeo Doubs and rookie TE Tucker Kraft as Love’s top downfield options. A heavy check-down day could also be in store for Aaron Jones and/or AJ Dillon out of the backfield.

Jones has been targeted 4.1 times per game in 9 games this season, while the 247-pound Dillon has seen at least 3 targets in 5 of his last 8 games.

4. There Will Be Less Scoring Than the Vegas Consensus Expects

With all seven major U.S. sportsbooks in our database sitting at a 43.5 total, our projections are a full 2.5 points lower, at 41.

Through 15 games this season, the Packers (22.2) have outpaced the Vikings (20.9) on the scoreboard on average. However, the Cousins-led Vikings easily handled the Packers at Lambeau Field, 24-10, in their first seasonal matchup in Week 8.

However, since losing Cousins in that game, Minnesota has averaged 19.8 points in the 8 games since, including a 3-0 win over the Raiders. The Vikings have also lost 4 of their last 5 contests.

There’s a different story being written in Green Bay. After scoring 20 or fewer points in 7 of their first 9 games, Jordan Love and the Packers offense have averaged 25.6 over their last 6. They are 4-2 overall since Week 11.

One of those losses came on a walk-off field goal against the Giants in Week 14.

5. The Packers Will Win a Close Game

As of Saturday evening, December 30, our model has a projected point spread of Packers by 2 points. That deviates from the consensus of the seven major sportsbooks in our database, six of which project the Vikings as at least 1-point favorites.

Here’s a look at how the model compares:

* The Heavy data point is a projected spread powered by Quarter4. The other outlets in the table are all sportsbooks.