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Even with a 4-digit OPS or a minuscule ERA out in front of the hype, the transition from Triple-A to MLB stage has humbled many a prospect scouting report.
Every year numerous heralded prospects fail to measure up, and the pressure of meeting expectations can feel like an albatross with each swing or pitch thrown.
With most teams just over 40 games into the current MLB season, these five highly-anticipated prospects have, for lack of a better word, disappointed thus far in 2024.
The most recognizable of the hopefuls is, of course, Orioles second baseman Jackson Holliday, along with Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio, Texas Ranger teammates/outfielders Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford, and Cardinal outfielder Jordan Walker.
The first four players mentioned were featured in a February 14th MLB.com piece that projected their 2024 All-Rookie Team, and the latter—Jordan Walker—came into 2023 as Baseball America’s #4 rated prospect.
Early Season Struggles for the Young ‘Phenom’
Most MLB fans are likely aware of the 2nd-generation prodigy Jackson Holliday and his meteoric rise (as a 19-year-old) through four levels of minor league baseball in a single calendar year.
That said (and hoopla aside), there may have been a bit of a red flag in the numbers that implied a potential struggle vs. the best pitchers in the world.
Holliday racked up a pretty impressive overall 2023 stat line, but against Triple-A arms, he hit .267 with a somewhat pedestrian .796 OPS—both a bit uninspiring for a perceived poster child about to face a litmus test.
After posting a slash line from hell in a mere 10 games, Holliday packed up his gear, and back to Triple-A Norfolk it was.
Jackson whiffed in nearly 53% of his at-bats with the Orioles and dealing with a familiar issue that dates back to his 23’ AAA campaign, was visibly pressing at times in his major league role.
Holliday, still several months away from legally buying his first beer, touched on his rookie experience.
“Whenever you’re struggling a little bit, you just start searching,” Holliday told The Athletic on Monday. “And start creating little habits. I’m just making some adjustments because you got to. It’s a lot more difficult than Triple-A.”
“I don’t think there’s very many people in the big leagues who haven’t struggled. It just happens to be at the beginning.”
On the good news front, Holliday has responded to the demotion with a .456 OPS, solid 151 wRC+, .427 wOBA, and a positive reversal in his K/BB ratio. Smart money wouldn’t put too much stock in his slow MLB start, as Holliday could find his MLB groove sooner rather than later.
Historical October & a Designated Hitter Who Hasn’t Hit
Evan Carter truly hit the ground on fire (think Nicholas Cage in Ghost Rider) compiling a 1.2 fWAR and .412 BABIP in 75 plate appearances. He followed that up with a stellar postseason OPS of .917 and a 1.55 wRC+ as well.
This year, however, Carter is just above the Mendoza Line in batting average and barely a plus-value player. Lingering back issues have resurfaced adding to the cold start.
Still, if he can get right and catch up to projections, Evan can have a fruitful season. Don’t forget about the playoff pedigree he flashed last October either.
Carter became the 2nd youngest player (21 years, 59 days) penciled into a World Series starting lineup while batting 3rd, eclipsed only by New York Yankee legend Mickey Mantle (20 years, 347 days).
Texas Ranger teammate and 4th overall pick in the 2023 Amateur Draft Wyatt Langford had an OPS north of 1.000 at every level of pro ball—until his MLB debut earlier this year.
After a productive spring, the train has hopped the tracks. With a current SLUG of just .293 and a 0.69 ISO, Langford has struggled to drive the ball. To make matters worse, he’s been on the IL since May 4th with a hamstring problem.
The former Florida Gator has been the DH in nearly 2/3s of his ABs and will need an upturn in production to remain there.
A Milestone Contract & Cardinal Who Lost His Mojo
Being offered $82 million over 8 years before you even visit an MLB batting box is one thing, but having the opportunity to jack it up another $60 million with “escalators” (and two options) is another.
Coveted Venezuelan product Jackson Chourio joined the Brewers organization after a solid Venezuelan Winter League stint, and notwithstanding a poor 64 wRC+ figure so far in 2024, the speedy outfielder is still a plus defender.
The Brewers front office was well aware of the risks, and general manager Matt Arnold echoed that sentiment as he touched on the philosophy behind the landmark contract.
“There’s an inflection point where it’s a good deal for everyone involved, and we kind of hit that spot with them. It’s a risk because there’s certainly a chance that he could exceed the value of this contract.”
“And there’s certainly a chance that he underperforms. So everyone’s got to be comfortable with the potential outcomes associated with a deal like this. But at the same time, we’re looking at Jackson like he’s an elite prospect and an elite talent. And those are hard to find.”
The division rival Cardinals thought they had something special in 6-5/250lb Jordan Walker. As the 2023 season was about to throw its first pitch, Walker had risen to top-5 prospect status on major grading websites
The former Georgia high school slugger had a bittersweet MLB debut. He displayed some good hitting prowess with 15 HR and 51 RBI, but his transition to the outfield failed to meet even minimal expectations. Walker was near the bottom in many outfield metrics, yet he still finished as a plus-value player overall (1.0 fWAR).
Walker put his name in the record books tying a century-old mark of hitting safely in the first 12 games to start a career, after moving past HOF great Ted Williams, who had been second.
Unfortunately for Jordan and the Cardinals, he came out flat in 24’ with a 27% K-rate and a lowly wRC+ of 46 as he tried to shake some old habits at the plate.
The one beacon of light was a notable improvement in defensive numbers, but as of mid-May, Walker has yet to hit a single homerun in 116 plate visits between AAA and the big club.
Walker has shown recent signs of a possible breakout in Memphis, and should he find his mojo or an impromptu injury create a need, he could very well find himself back in the Redbird clubhouse sometime relatively soon.
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