Orioles Ace Predicted to Leave for $275 Million Deal

Getty Corbin Burnes pitching during an August 28 game against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Baltimore Orioles‘ blockbuster deal for Corbin Burnes came with a free agency caveat that’s fast approaching. There’s mounting pessimism that he’ll re-sign with the team.

Bleacher Report’s Tim Kelly pegged Burnes amongst nine other stars who will play or another team next season. In an August 27 column, Kelly predicted a $275 million payday for the ace.

“But considering Burnes will be the best starting pitcher to hit the open market since Gerrit Cole received a nine-year, $324 million deal from the New York Yankees prior to the 2020 season, it could well take $275 million-plus to retain the ace,” Kelly wrote.

Baltimore won’t be Burnes’ only suitor. And it might be a tall ask of new owner David Rubenstein to pay out a $275 million deal for a non-tenured Oriole.

Kelly went on to list the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers as potential landing spots for the 29-year-old righty.

Burnes has fallen out of rhythm as of late, but has still put together a strong first season with the Orioles. He’s 12-7 in 2024, has pitched 164.1 innings, and has struck out 150 of 672 batters faced.

There’s little argument that Burnes is the best free-agent pitcher available this winter. Most consider him the second-best talent available overall, only ranking him behind Juan Soto of the New York Yankees.

Corbin Burnes Struggled in August

Burnes entered the month of August with an 11-4 record, and left it with a 12-7 record.

He went 1-3 over five games and 25.2 innings pitched, allowing 21 earned runs and recording a 7.36 ERA. Burnes hadn’t given up more than 11 earned runs, or recorded an ERA over 3.09 in any month prior this season.

Still, after an August 28 loss to the Dodgers, Burnes told reporters he’s headed int he right direction.

“Yeah, I think it was a step in the right direction,” Burnes said, according to Steve Melewski of MASN Sports. “We threw the ball pretty well. Cutter command was better again today and got it down in the zone. Think we took a positive step there with some swing and miss and some weak contact. Yeah, that inning, obviously stuff got away from us a little bit.”

Burnes pitched five innings against Los Angeles, allowing 6 runs on 5 hits and throwing only 4 strikeouts.

He and Baltimore both will look to put the month of August behind them, and focus on securing a spot in the 2024 postseason. As of August 29, the Orioles are 77-57 and one game back of the Yankees for the AL East lead.

Burnes Talks Free Agency with The Athletic

For the first time since landing in Baltimore, fans got to hear Burnes talk about free agency on August 23. In an exclusive interview with Will Sammon of The Athletic, he talked about the upcoming winter.

Burnes told Sammon that he’ll do plenty of research of his own, exploring the state of clubs and their farm systems.

“I am going to have to do a lot of research this offseason of farm systems, young guys coming up, groups of core guys that are on a team,” Burnes told Sammon. “Where does it look like teams are going to be competitive? Where are teams just looking to spend some money to make the fan base happy? Whatever it might be.”

The Orioles trade for Burnes puts them ahead of the pack in terms of answering Burnes’ questions. His year with the team could prove the difference-maker in earning his commitment in free agency.

But the front office will still have to pony up and what’s expected to be a lucrative payday for Burnes. And with new ownership in house, it’s unclear if the team’s 2024 ace will be atop the priority list after the season.