Getty Corbin Burnes pitching during a July 10 game against the Chicago Cubs.
Amid another Cy Young-worthy campaign, Baltimore Orioles ace Corbin Burnes is headed for a lucrative payday in free agency. But for how much, and with what team, remains up in air.
In a July 18 column for Bleacher Report, Joel Reuter predicted that the 29-year-old will sign a seven-year, $255.5 million contract to remain with the Orioles longterm.
“If there’s mutual interest in getting a deal done before the offseason hits, a seven-year, $255.5 million contract could be a nice starting point in negotiations,” Reuter wrote. “That would give Burnes a $36.5 million annual salary, eclipsing the $36 million annual value of the deal that Gerrit Cole signed with the New York Yankees.”
Tim Britton predicted Burnes would land an eight-year deal for $260 million prior to the season’s start on March 4.
“Let’s suggest that as the extension,” Britton wrote. “With the idea that a characteristic season from Burnes would set him up to top that valuation on the open market.”
And a characteristic season it’s been.
Burnes is 9-4 at the All-Star Break. He’s pitched 118.2 innings in 2024, allowed 13 home runs and thrown 110 strikeouts.
Orioles Have To Pay For Burnes, Twice
Baltimore struck a trade for Burnes in February, sending Joey Ortiz, DL Hall, and the 34th pick in the 2024 MLB Draft to the Milwaukee Brewers as compensation.
And now he’ll be the best pitcher available in free agency, according to Reuter.
“The 29-year-old will be the top starting pitcher on the free-agent market this offseason thanks to another terrific season that has seen him post a 2.43 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 110 strikeouts in 118.2 innings while earning the starting nod in the All-Star Game,” Reuter wrote.
The Orioles didn’t sell the farm for the 29-year-old. But they certainly traded enough that would signal a commitment to him with his free agency looming. But despite Reuter’s prediction, don’t look for an extension midseason.
As Burnes said in a December appearance on “Foul Territory” podcast–prior to his trade to Baltimore–he’ll likely test the free agent waters come November.
“Obviously, every guy who gets this close to free agency wants to test the market, to see what your true dollar amount is, see what teams really are in on you,” Burnes said on December 19. “It would have to be something that would absolutely blow you away, to get you away from testing the free agent market, being able to choose where you want to go.”
Baltimore’s Pitching Outlook An Issue, Short-term And Long-term
The Orioles are down pitchers in 2024. Three starters and a reliever. That’s why it’s widely believed they’ll strike a deal, if not multiple deals, for bullpen and possibly rotation help by the July 30 trade deadline.
But beyond this season, they’ll need to address the pitching staff, which is undergoing an overhaul.
Kyle Bradish underwent Tommy John surgery on June 19, so his timeline for next season is unknown. Felix Bautista underwent the same in October of 2023, and has a similarly unknown timeline for a return.
John Means and Tyler Wells both suffered season-ending elbow surgeries this season. So they can’t be counted on as guaranteed starters, which is how they entered the 2024 season to start.
Baltimore’s pitching needs won’t stop with any moves made at the trade deadline. Barring trades for guys under team control beyond this season, they’ll be back at the drawing board come the season’s end.