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It took a while for the Chicago Cubs to finally start winning consistently in 2024. They’re entering September 5 games with a 72-68 record off the strength of going 25-17 since the All-Star break. It’s probably too little, too late to reach the postseason, but it’s an encouraging sight for 2025. Will first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger be along for the ride?
Bleacher Report’s Joel Rueter shared his thoughts on what each team will do with their top 2024-25 free agent. He’s predicting the Cubs will move on from Bellinger. There’s a catch, though.
“The first decision of the offseason belongs to Cody Bellinger,” he said. “The 29-year-old can opt out of the final two seasons of his three-year, $80 million deal this winter, and despite less-than-stellar numbers this season, his age and track record could still make another run at the open market an appealing option.”
Reuter pointed out that center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong and first baseman Michael Busch have been productive in 2024 and are much more cost-effective options (neither is eligible for arbitration yet). Bellinger is hitting .267/.325/.424 with 15 home runs, 61 RBI and 58 runs scored in 483 plate appearances this season. That performance has been worth 1.6 WAR, per FanGraphs. That pales in comparison to the 4.4 WAR he produced in 2023.
The Cubs Almost Didn’t Re-Sign Cody Bellinger Last Winter
Bellinger took a one-year deal with the Cubs to rebuild his value in 2023 before re-entering free agency. The Scott Boras client seemingly did that by winning the National League Comeback Player of the Year Award. He hit .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs, 29 doubles, 97 RBI, 95 runs scored and 20 steals in 556 plate appearances.
Upon reaching the open market, Boras and Co. set the asking price quite high. “He is looking for a package well over $200 million, according to sources familiar with the situation,” ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reported in December 2023. “As [Bellinger’s agent Scott] Boras has said, ‘The Cubs got a full Belly [last season]. They’re going to have to loosen their belts to keep Bellinger.”
Boras and Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer played a game of chicken for most of the winter. Bellinger re-signing with Chicago consistently seemed to be the most likely outcome. However, Hoyer wasn’t willing to spend the money the left-handed slugger’s camp was asking for.
The Cubs eventually got what they wanted – Bellinger back on their roster for a price that didn’t break the bank. They agreed to a three-year deal worth $80 million on February 28. His contract includes a pair of opt-outs, per Spotrac. So, even if Bellinger opts in for 2025 with Chicago, he has another chance to test the open market next winter.
Can Bellinger Find the Long-Term Deal He Wants?
Even if chances are high that the 29-year-old will opt out in November, it’s not a guarantee. After all, third baseman Matt Chapman (another Boras client) won’t be doing so. But that’s because he agreed to a six-year, $151 million extension to remain with the San Francisco Giants.
Getting a deal over $200 million after putting up more pedestrian numbers this season compared to 2023 seems unlikely. Securing a guarantee better than the two years and $52.5 million remaining on his current deal is possible, though. Three teams that come to mind as potential fits this offseason are the Giants, the New York Yankees and the Seattle Mariners.
San Francisco was linked to first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ahead of the trade deadline and could use a boost at the position. LaMonte Wade Jr. has posted a .783 OPS in 99 games played. Giants first basemen overall have been worth 0.8 WAR this season, per FanGraphs.
The Yankees aren’t expected to bring Anthony Rizzo back next year. So, there’s a potential opening to bring Bellinger to the Bronx. As for Seattle, they were also linked to Guerrero ahead of the trade deadline. They could use more offense as they continue chasing the Houston Astros in the American League West.
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