Getty After an offseason of improvements, PECOTA is not just projecting the Yankees to win the AL East. They expect them to run away with it.
While there are still many MLB free agents in need of a home for 2024, baseball is right around the corner. New York Yankees pitchers and catchers are reporting to Tampa on February 14. When they do, work will begin to follow through on high expectations being put on them for the upcoming season.
Baseball Prospectus released its annual PECOTA projections, which predict win-loss totals and how each team finishes within their respective division. The algorithm is predicting a rebound campaign from the Bombers. Here are the American League East predictions:
- Yankees: 94.4 wins, 67.6 losses
- Toronto Blue Jays: 87.8 – 74.2
- Baltimore Orioles: 86.7-75.3
- Tampa Bay Rays: 86.2-75.8
- Boston Red Sox: 80.1-81.9
This would be a huge turnaround for the Yankees. Manager Aaron Boone’s club has won the AL East twice since 2019. This included a division title in 2022 after a 99-win performance. But New York finished fourth in the division in 2023 upon producing an 82-80 record.
A 12-win improvement would be quite substantial in its own right. However, this 94.4-win projection has them neck-and-neck with the Houston Astros (94.8 wins) for the most wins in the American League.
A Deeper Look at the Yankees’ PECOTA Projections
Following a 2023 season that ended without a trip to the playoffs, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman got to work on his roster. Among the many acquisitions that were made, the most impactful one will likely be trading for outfielder Juan Soto from the San Diego Padres. He’s consistently been among baseball’s best players, and the 25-year-old is viewed as one of the American League MVP favorites heading into the season, per MLB.com.
PECOTA is clearly a fan of the moves the Yankees made, even if Cashman and Co. aren’t completely satisfied with the pitching staff yet.
The odds of New York making the playoffs, according to Baseball Prospectus, is up at 90.6%. Houston is the only AL team with higher preseason odds of reaching the playoffs (92.1%). But when it comes to chances of winning the World Series, the Bombers are at the top in the Junior Circuit. Their 11.6% odds are the best, while the Astros are right behind them at 10.5%. No other AL club has odds higher than 6.1%.
Not All Projection Systems Agree With Baseball Prospectus
Of course, Baseball Prospectus isn’t the only place that projects how MLB teams will perform in the upcoming season. While there are some similarities in other projections that have come out recently, there are plenty of disagreements.
FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski released pre-spring training ZiPS projections for American League standings on February 8. Those projections have the Orioles winning the AL East for the second year in a row:
- Orioles: 90-72
- Yankees: 88-74
- Blue Jays: 88-74
- Rays: 83-79
- Red Sox: 79-83
New York still has a 65.6% chance of reaching the playoffs, but ZiPS is pegging the club’s odds of winning the World Series at 5.9%.
FanGraphs also releases its own projected standings before each season. Their system gives the Yankees a 75.5% chance of making the playoffs and 7.5% odds of winning the World Series. Like PECOTA, FanGraphs also has them winning the AL East. It’s a much tighter race, though:
- Yankees: 88.3-73.7
- Rays: 85.2-76.8
- Orioles: 84.7-77.3
- Blue Jays: 83.6-78.4
- Red Sox: 79.8-82.2
While the are differences between these three projections, they all agree on one thing. The Yankees are expected to have a better year in 2024 than they did in 2023.