Phillies’ $300 Million Contract Predicted to Become ‘Nightmare’

Getty The Philadelphia Phillies signed shortstop Trea Turner to an 11-year, $330 million contract two winters ago. Will they regret it soon?

The Philadelphia Phillies’ 2024 campaign ended after getting bounced from the NLDS in four games by the New York Mets. One player who didn’t produce at the plate with the season on the line was shortstop Trea Turner.

Is his 11-year, $300 million contract destined to become a “nightmare” within the next couple of seasons? Bleacher Report’s Zachary D. Rymer picked one contract for every MLB team that will look horrible once 2026 rolls around. He’s predicting that Turner’s big-money deal will soon become a headache for Philadelphia.

“Turner was indeed still an elite runner this year, but only in relation to his peers. By his standards, his average sprint of 29.6 feet per second marked a new low,” Rymer said. “Turner still has a pretty good bat if you take away his speed, but he’s suddenly struggling to hit fastballs and he seems to be past his peak power. Per Outs Above Average, the same is true of his defense at shortstop. This season ended up being a solid one for Turner despite these things, but it was far from his best. And if his skills continue to degrade, his best will become more of a distant memory.”

A Look at Trea Turner’s Second Season With the Phillies

Turner’s 2024 regular season in Philadelphia consisted of just 121 games because of an extended stint on the injured list. Despite that, his production was just as good (if not better in some spots) than it was the year before.

The shortstop had to dig himself out of a very slow start in 2023. However, his performance was still worth 4.2 WAR, according to FanGraphs. It included a career-high 150 strikeouts and a 108 wRC+ that hadn’t been that low since 2018 (105). But he also slugged 26 home runs with 76 RBI, 102 runs scored and 30 steals in 155 games.

This past season, Turner decreased his strikeout rate from 21.7% to 18.2%. He also posted a 124 wRC+ with 21 homers, 62 RBI, 88 runs scored and 19 steals in 152 fewer plate appearances compared to 2023. His overall value settled in at 3.9 WAR.

Those are solid numbers, but are we already watching the 31-year-old’s performance decline? He posted a career-high 7.1 WAR in 2021 while splitting time with the Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers. That number has decreased each year since (6.4 in 2022, 4.2 in 2023 and 3.9 in 2024).

The Phillies Need Trea Turner to Show up in the Postseason

Philadelphia posted a 95-67 record during the regular season, capturing the organization’s first National League East division title since 2011. But after coming into 2024 with championship aspirations, this year will ultimately be viewed as a failure after a premature exit in October.

There is an interesting trend forming after two years of Turner playing postseason baseball for the Phillies. Philly moves on to the next round when he produces at the plate and they get eliminated when he doesn’t.

Turner posted an OPS of at least 1.400 in the Phillies’ Wild Card Series victory over the Miami Marlins and their NLDS win over the Atlanta Braves in 2023. But as they were eliminated by the Arizona Diamondbacks in the 2023 NLCS, he struggled to a .636 OPS. The same thing happened during the club’s 2024 NLDS loss to the Mets – he slashed .200/.294/.200 in 17 plate appearances.

The chances of Turner being the player he was in 2021 and 2022 aren’t high as he’s now in his early 30s. However, Philadelphia will also hope his monster contract won’t weigh the payroll down within the next couple of years.