With the July 30 MLB trade deadline fast approaching, the buyer/seller market is beginning to take shape entering summer.
Albeit entirely possible some of the names currently bantered about don’t hit the market, with each series that passes teams are getting a better sense of where they stand.
In Bleacher Report’s June 4 “MLB Trade Deadline Big Board,” in place of traditional speculation, they used “a couple of neutral sources: postseason odds on Baseball Reference and Fan Graphs,” to construct a plausible list of trade candidates.
The caveat?
“Players on teams who entered play Monday (June 3, 2024) with a less than 25 percent chance of making the playoffs, per the average of those two prognostication tools, were considered for this big board,” wrote Bleacher Report.
Let’s explore five pitchers among the 30 overall players mentioned.
Trevor Williams, RHP, Washington Nationals
Williams is on a one-year, $7 million contract.
In 56.2 innings pitched this season, the 32-year-old righty has emerged with a 2.22 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and a career-low xwOBA (.287)–which is 73 points better than his 2023 number.
Per Bleacher Report: “One year removed from a 5.55 ERA, Williams has flipped that mark upside-down to a staggering 2.22 through his first 11 starts. He gave up more dingers than any other NL pitcher in 2023 (34) and more than anyone in the big leagues in 2020 (15), but just two solo dingers allowed thus far this season.”
Williams’ 6.2 Barrel% is his lowest in several seasons and a slight dip in reluctance on his fastball coupled with a nice sinker and changeup as out pitches, the San Diego, California native will be on needy GM radars.
Tanner Scott, RHP, Miami Marlins
The Marlins closer is on a one-year, $5.7 million contract.
Scott has shoved well over 23.0 innings pitched posting a solid 1.57 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and seven saves. At 29 years of age, the 2014 sixth-round pick has a fairly lethal upper 90s four-seam fastball. MLB hitters are batting a paltry 0.95 against it while slugging .119.
Scott has been avoiding bats at an impressive rate, but he’s also missing the strike zone at a 17.8 BB% clip.
As Bleacher Report stated: “Because of his high walk rate the expectation is that his ERA is going to eventually come crashing back to earth. (His FIP is 4.06.). He hasn’t allowed an earned run since April 14, though. And while the other closers might be available if their respective teams continue to underwhelm, it’s just about a guarantee that Scott will be on the move.”
Erick Fedde, RHP, Chicago White Sox
He’s in the first year of a two-year deal that pays him $7.5 million per.
Fedde’s stat line of 69.1 innings pitched, 3.12 ERA, and 1.18 WHIP are logical numbers for a pitching staff in need.
“In six seasons with the Nationals, Fedde had a 5.41 ERA. But he figured something out in Korea last season, making 30 starts with a 2.00 ERA before coming back to MLB and becoming a legitimate middle-of-the-rotation starter. And now that two-year, $15M contract he signed with the White Sox looks like an absolute steal,” Bleacher Report wrote.
He’s in a career-best 22.8 K% and 7.6 BB% stretch and his best pitch on paper is a 90 mph cutter which batters have only touched for a .203 average while whiffing 25.2% of the time.
Jack Flaherty, RHP, Detroit Tigers
Flaherty is on a one-year, $14 million deal.
Through 67.2 innings pitched, hurler Flaherty has a 3.46 ERA, with a nice 1.00 WHIP while averaging 12.0 K/9. After posting an ERA of just over 4.00 in April, Flaherty has rebounded with a 2.84 ERA since May 1.
The former first-round pick from Burbank, California is still just 29 years of age. Flaherty has an outside shot in 2024 of besting his 2019 career season total of 4.7 fWAR.
The Bleacher Report assessment: “Over the previous four seasons, Flaherty battled both injury and control issues, looking nothing like the 23-year-old from 2019 who made 33 starts with a 2.75 ERA, 10.6 K/9 and an NL-best WHIP of 0.97. Through 11 starts in Detroit, though, he has been even better than he was a half-decade ago, averaging nine strikeouts per walk and recording nine quality starts thus far. Flaherty may well be the cream of this year’s two-month-rental crop of starting pitchers.”
Jesus Luzardo, LHP, Miami Marlins
Luzardo’s 2024 contract pays him $5.5 million. He’s under control and arbitration-eligible in 2025 and 2026.
It’s been a tale of two vastly different months for the 26-year-old Lima, Peru native Luzardo. In April 2024, Luzardo recorded a 6.58 ERA while getting battered for 5 round-trippers, 19 earned runs, and 24 hits in 26 innings pitched.
However, over the last few weeks, Luzardo has a cool 1.75 ERA and a stingy .085 WHIP.
Although yet to reach his full potential, he has the most upside among the names expected to be shopped between now and August 1, 2024. He also figures to bring in the best haul.
According to Bleacher Report: “Since the beginning of 2022, Luzardo has a 3.59 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 10.3 K/9. Couple those solid numbers with two years of arbitration eligibility still to come and Miami should be able to get quite the package of prospects for this lefty. Seattle gave up a ton for 1.5 years of Luis Castillo two summers ago, and his numbers in the three seasons before being dealt (3.61 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 10.2 K/9) sure are comparable to what Luzardo has been up to lately.”
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Examining 5 Pitchers Likely to Be Available at 2024 MLB Trade Deadline