Getty Japanese pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto reacts as he walks back to the dugout
Update: On Thursday night, December 21, Yoshinobu Yamamoto agreed to a 12-year, $325 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Jack Harris of The Los Angeles Times was first on the news.
The focus of the baseball world is now squarely on free agent Japanese pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto as he appears set to command a record $300 million offer from suitors like the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers — the largest deal ever for a pitcher entering The Show from outside the U.S.
“All of Major League Baseball’s high rollers are believed to have interest in adding him to their rotation, with the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets and New York Yankees most commonly identified as the suspected frontrunners,” R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports reported.
“Several league sources have relayed expectations that bidding will exceed the $300 million mark, which will shatter the previous record for an incoming overseas pitcher.”
Latest News, Timeline & Odds on Yoshinobu Yamamoto Free Agency
GettyJapanese pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto gives a thumbs up on his way to the dugout
In addition to the frontrunners, the Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, San Francisco Giants and Toronto Blue Jays have all been linked to the pursuit of Yamamoto. And amid the scramble to court the right-handed ace, fans are left to wonder when a deal might get done.
He has until January 4 to sign with an MLB team, as The Athletic MLB Staff reported. But speculation around when exactly a deal will get done has ranged from just before Christmas to around New Year’s Eve, as noted by MLB insider Jon Heyman.
t.co/nDZFAzHnaH. One interested exec predicts a Yamamoto decision just before Christmas, another guesses just before New Year’s. Anyway, here was my odds board on the 7 teams believed in.
The latest betting odds offer some insight into which team currently holds the inside lane on acquiring the 25-year-old, with Bookies.com offering up-to-date estimates:
- New York Yankees, +175 Odds, 36.4% Implied Probability
- Los Angeles Dodgers, +200 Odds, 33.3% Implied Probability
- New York Mets, +275 Odds, 26.7% Implied Probability
- Boston Red Sox, +1200 Odds, 7.7% Implied Probability
- Toronto Blue Jays, +1400 Odds, 6.7% Implied Probability
- Philadelphia Phillies, +1400 Odds, 6.7% Implied Probability
- San Francisco Giants, +1500 Odds, 6.3% Implied Probability
Why Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto Get a Record MLB Deal?
GettyJapanese pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto fools hitters with a remarkable mechanics
Some may be wondering why Yamamoto is tied to a record-breaking offer from the biggest suitors in baseball. After all, he is virtually unproven against MLB hitters and, at just 5-foot-10 and 176 pounds, he’s relatively small for a starting ace.
But those who have seen Yamamoto pitch are quick to articulate what makes him such a special player.
“The scouting report on Yamamoto reads something like this: hyperathletic, elite flexibility, unlikely strength, ultrafast arm, exceptional movement patterns,” as ESPN’s Jeff Passan put it.
Pitching seven seasons for the Orix Buffaloes of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) league, Yamamoto has a career 1.82 ERA, 922 strikeouts and 70 wins across 897 innings. He has won the league’s MVP and best-pitcher awards.
He has command of a mid-90s fastball with remarkably low release and dramatic backspin that fools hitters. He’s got a dangerous splitter, go-to curveball and can even leverage a slider and cutter as well.
Pitching for team Japan alongside teammate Shohei Ohtani, Yamamoto had a major international breakthrough during the 2023 World Baseball Classic, where he racked up 12 strikeouts in 7.1 innings.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 2023 World Baseball Classic highlights vs Australia and Mexico.
Watching just a few of Yamamoto’s pitching highlights makes it clear that the MLB has never seen a rookie like him. And whether that means he’s able to briefly test his mettle against the world’s best hitters, or enter the league and continue to dominate for years as he has in Japan, it’s clear that plenty of teams are preparing to pay him a record amount to do so for them.
“Analysts believe (Yamamoto) could pull in a major contract as high as $300 million, which would make him the highest-paid rookie in league history,” Brian Bushard reported for Forbes. “That payout would put the 25-year-old right-hander’s rookie contract ahead of a group of Japanese players who arrived in the MLB to big paydays.”
A list of Japanese players paid handsomely to make their debuts includes:
- Shohei Ohtani, one-year, $2.3 million for the Los Angeles Angels
- Yu Darvish, six-year, $60 million for the Texas Rangers
- Masahiro Tanaka, seven-year, $155 million for the New York Yankees
- Daisuke Matsuzaka, six-year, $52 million for the Boston Red Sox