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After landing Nikola Vucevic at this year’s trade deadline, the Chicago Bulls are expected to be huge players in both free agency and the trade market this offseason.
With the aforementioned big man, rookie Patrick Williams, and Zach LaVine all under the United Center roof, there’s an increased pressure to continue building around those centerpieces and return to the playoffs in 2022.
But how and what those series of moves look like may revolve entirely around the Bulls’ All-Star guard.
LaVine’s entering the last year of the four-year/$80-million contract he signed in 2018, meaning he’s due for an extension, and Chicago is expected to engage the 26-year old on talks this offseason as soon as they are allowed.
Whether or not he’ll be receptive in those talks remain unclear, making Zach LaVine’s pending extension with the Chicago Bulls one of the more must-watch situations around the entire NBA.
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What Does a LaVine Extension Look Like Right Now?
As of today, the most the Chicago Bulls can offer Zach LaVine in an extension this offseason would be a four-year deal somewhere north of $104-105 million.
That’s based on 120 percent of his salary for the 2021-2022 season, with eight percent increases annually.
It would tie LaVine to Chicago through the 2025-2026 season, for which they have no guaranteed salary currently on the books. Rookie Patrick Williams’s deal runs up after the 2023-2024 campaign.
But as Eric Pincus noted back in January, that’s not the Bulls’ only route in a LaVine extension:
The Bulls would need roughly $14.2 million in cap space to give LaVine a raise (starting with the 2021-22 season) that would pay him approximately $151.7 million over four years. Although they would be using some of their financial flexibility on him instead of adding additional talent, they would no longer have to worry about losing him as an unrestricted free agent in 2022.
That’s a risky gamble, forking over current cap space today in order to ensure they retain LaVine.
But if the franchise feels strongly about his being the face of the team, and all reports seemingly indicate that they do, then it’s a small price to pay to guarantee his presence in the Windy City.
Why It’s a ‘Tough Decision’
In his latest for Bleacher Report, Ranking the NBA’s 5 Toughest Contract Decisions This Summer, Dan Favale went through the five most pressing decisions around the league this offseason.
Sure enough, Zach LaVine and the Chicago Bulls made an appearance on his list, clocking in at third overall:
Zach LaVine’s extension eligibility is to some degree simple, in that he’s not going to sign one. A 20 percent raise off next year’s salary would put him at $23.4 million in 2022-23. Entering free agency lets LaVine ink a max contract that projects to start at $33.7 million—a difference of more than $10 million.
There’s little doubt that the Bulls would prefer to extend LaVine now, but that same train of thought is met with the optimism that he’ll receive so much more as a free agent in next year’s market.
The 26-year old guard is coming off of a career year where he averaged 27.4 points, five rebounds, and 4.9 assists.
As mentioned, Chicago could always renegotiate with LaVine and offer him a bigger extension this offseason.
But that kind of cap space shuffling could inhibit the team’s ability to build a winning roster, as Favale notes:
The Bulls are clearly committed to LaVine—otherwise they wouldn’t have made the all-in move for Nikola Vucevic. But giving him an immediate raise hamstrings their capacity to improve a roster that failed to crack this year’s play-in tournament. Paying him will actually cost them talent.
It’s all up to Zach LaVine, and coincidentally, only he truly knows what his career priorities are moving forward.
Regardless, if you’re the Chicago Bulls, this isn’t necessarily a tough decision as much as it is a complex one.
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