Just because the New York Giants have backed Daniel Jones publicly as the 2024 starting quarterback, it does not mean that they are locked into that gameplan behind the scenes. Especially with an available Bill Belichick potentially breathing down head coach Brian Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen’s necks if year three goes as poorly as year two.
More often than not, Vegas oddsmakers have their fingers on the pulse of the league, and the current odds are giving Big Blue the fifth best chance (+1100) to land former Super Bowl champion quarterback Russell Wilson this spring — which is tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Washington Commanders.
Covers analyst Robert Criscola outlined the full list of odds for Wilson on January 25 (via Bet365), and only four NFL franchises were given a better probability of acquiring the nine-time Pro Bowler in 2024.
How Might the Giants Go About Signing or Trading for Russell Wilson?
Wilson’s contract situation with the Denver Broncos is complex, to say the least. Allow us to break down the possibilities of his expected departure.
First off, Broncos head coach Sean Payton singled that the organization would be moving on from Wilson when he benched him for the final two weeks of the season. This calculated decision safeguarded Denver from paying out a potential $37 million injury clause in Wilson’s contract.
With that clause now off the table, the Broncos are expected to either designate Wilson as a post-June 1 release or trade him before March 17 according to The Athletic’s Nick Kosmider.
“If Wilson… is still on the roster on that date, his $37 million salary for the 2025 season becomes fully guaranteed,” Kosmider explained on January 25. “If the Broncos decide to cut Wilson before that date — trying to facilitate a trade would be another option — they’ll next have to figure out how to digest the $85 million dead money hit that would follow such a move.”
If this offseason the #Broncos part ways with Russell Wilson a post June 1 release would divide the $85 million in dead money over two seasons:
– $35.4 million in 2024
– $49.6 million in 2025
He concluded that the most likely course of action is a post-June 1 cut, but a team like the Giants could find mutual ground as a trade partner considering they’re in a similar situation.
Both franchises would have to work out the financials, but a quarterback swap could theoretically see Jones serve as a one-year stopgap for Payton — with the potential to win the job — while he drafts a moldable prospect. Jones is still a former first-round talent after all, and that offers Denver a higher ceiling than Jarrett Stidham.
A trade would also keep Wilson out of the division and away from a rival like the Las Vegas Raiders. Of course, Wilson would have to waive his no-trade clause, but the Giants have never been seen as an undesirable QB destination.
Option 2: Releasing Daniel Jones & Bidding on Russell Wilson
The other option is both quarterbacks get designated as post-June 1 releases and Schoen bids on Wilson like everyone else. It’s unclear what the former Seattle Seahawks star might garner on the open market, but the price of a Jones release is known information.
According to Over the Cap, a post-June 1 cut of Jones would cost $47.105 million in 2024. However, it would save $30.5 million in 2025 and another $47.5 million in 2026.
Needless to say, it would be much easier for the Giants to rid themselves of Jones next offseason — which appears to be the plan barring something unexpected.
Considering Big Blue’s limited cap space this spring plus the dead charge of releasing Jones, facilitating a trade seems like the more likely scenario when it comes to Wilson. Option two is just far too expensive all around, and we haven’t even discussed how much it might cost to sign the veteran signal-caller on the open market.
Although, Spotrac’s Michael Ginnitti did note that “a minimum salary for Wilson next year [could carry a low cap charge of] $1.21M” on December 27.
FWIW: Russell Wilson’s guarantee next season contains offset language.
If the #Broncos release him next March, the $39M owed to him on the way out would be reduced by however much he earns from a new team in 2024.
A minimum salary for Wilson next year comes in at $1.21M.
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Giants Tied for 5th Best Odds to Land Super Bowl Champion QB