Bears’ Likely No. 1 Pick Caleb Williams Draws Comparison to Historic Draft Bust

Getty QB Caleb Williams is likely going tot he Bears at No. 1.

The vast majority of NFL analysts predict the Chicago Bears will draft USC quarterback Caleb Williams No. 1 overall, but some of his player comps aren’t as flattering as the team might have hoped.

Bill Connelly of ESPN authored draft prospect comparisons for Williams on Monday, April 1, and the two names he came up with were Zach Wilson of the New York Jets and Sam Ehlinger of the Indianapolis Colts.

Williams’ stats are better than both, but all three were stellar from the perspective of efficient and risk-free passes, and all three took at least 2.9 seconds per pass to throw. Williams was far more willing than Wilson to take the quick, easy passes when they presented themselves, and while Williams was a willing scrambler at times, he was more reserved than Ehlinger in this regard. But Wilson and Ehlinger were the closest to this unique recipe of patience and playmaking.

If there’s a reason for doubting Williams, it’s that Wilson, the No. 2 pick in the 2021 draft, has never been able to turn the patience-and-playmaking thing into success at the next level. Safe to say, neither has Ehlinger.

Caleb Williams’ Prospect Comps Zach Wilson, Sam Ehlinger Both 3rd-String Options After 3 NFL Seasons

GettyQuarterback Zach Wilson of the New York Jets.

The Jets selected Wilson No. 2 overall in 2021 out of BYU, signing him to a four-year contract worth $35 million. Since then, New York has benched Wilson multiple times and granted him permission to seek a trade this offseason, as Aaron Rodgers is poised to start for the team, which recently signed Tyrod Taylor to a two-year deal worth $12 million to serve as the backup QB.

Meanwhile, the Colts have also relegated Ehlinger — a sixth-round pick in 2021 — to a third-string spot. Indy drafted QB Anthony Richardson with the No. 4 pick last year and signed Joe Flacco to serve as his backup in 2024 after losing Gardner Minshew to the Las Vegas Raiders in free agency.

That any analyst would compare Williams to two draft picks who have become afterthoughts for their current teams after just three years in the NFL is disconcerting, to say the least. However, Connelly’s professional comps for Williams are far more flattering.

Caleb Williams Draws Professional Comps to Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson

GettyKansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

Connelly was far more forgiving — flattering even — when offering a second section on Williams’ professional comparisons. There, he named Super Bowl champions Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson as the two players most similar to the Bears’ prospective No. 1 overall pick.

“I looked for NFL QBs from 2014-23 who (a) took at least 2.7 seconds per pass, (b) produced at least a 3.0 TD-to-INT ratio, (c) threw at least 25% of their passes at or behind the line, (d) completed at least 63% of their career passes and (e) averaged at least 11.5 yards per completion,” Connelly wrote. “That’s a pretty Williams-esque combination, and it gave us two of the best quarterbacks of the last decade. If there’s a reason to make him the No. 1 pick, that’s a pretty good one.”

Mahomes has been a Pro Bowler five times, an All-Pro selection twice, appeared in four Super Bowls and won three of them. Wilson, meanwhile, is a nine-time Pro Bowler who has played in two Super Bowls and earned one ring.

If Williams ends up even half as successful as either Mahomes or Wilson, the Bears will have done well with their first overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft.