Getty Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb
The Dallas Cowboys (11-5) travel to the nation’s capital to take on the Washington Commanders (4-12) in Week 18 with the chance to clinch the NFC East division title.
Entering Week 18 , the Heavy Sports AI-powered projections model, powered by our partners at Quarter 4, gives the Cowboys a 98% chance of boarding the team buses Sunday afternoon with hats and t-shirts following a win.
Here’s a look at five AI-powered predictions ahead of Sunday’s game:
1. Dak Prescott Will Light Up the Commanders (Again)
The Heavy Sports model expects Dak Prescott to put on a show with a division title on the line, who is projected to surpass his season average in passing attempts, completions, passing yards, and longest completion.
Prescott projections: 38.7 attempts, 25.7 completions, 286.4 pass yards, 1.9 TDs, 66.3% completions
With the exception of a blowout Cowboys loss in Buffalo to the Bills, these numbers would be in line with a strong finishing stretch from Prescott. Prescott surpassed 250 yards in five of the past six weeks, including a 345-yard outburst in Week 17 against the Detroit Lions.
Prescott’s totals over the past six weeks:
- 68.4% completions, 345 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT in a 20-19 win over the Lions
- 62.5% completions, 253 passing yards, 2 TDs in a 22-20 loss to the Dolphins
- 61.8% completions, 134 passing yards and 1 INT in a 31-10 loss to the Bills
- 61.5% completions, 271 passing yards and 2 TDs in a 33-13 win over the Eagles
- 70.7% completions, 299 yards and 3 TDs in a 41-35 win over the Seahawks
- 68.8% completions, 331 yards and 4 TDs in a 45-10 win over the Commanders
2. Brian Robinson Jr. Will Run Roughshod Over Dallas
The Cowboys’ Achilles heel this season has been the rushing defense, and the Heavy Sports model expects Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr. to take full advantage in the season finale.
Against Dallas, the Heavy Sports model projects Robinson to surpass each of his season averages, in one of his strongest efforts of the 2023 campaign.
Robinson projections: 13.2 rushes, 65 yards, 0.7 TDs, 3.4 catches, 40.7 yards, 38.5 yards after catch
Robinson Jr. enters Week 18 rushing for 708 yards and 5 touchdowns while averaging 4.2 yards per carry through 14 games.
Meanwhile, Dallas is currently the No. 20-ranked rushing defense in the NFL, allowing 116.25 yards per game, the worst among teams that have clinched a postseason berth in the NFC, which could open the door for the Robinson Jr. breakout our model predicts.
3. CeeDee Lamb Will Finish Strong
CeeDee Lamb aims to put an exclamation point on the most prolific season of his young career, on Sunday afternoon.
Lamb has already set the Cowboys’ franchise record for receptions and receiving yards in a single season, and our model expects the 24-year-old deep threat to significantly add to those totals.
Lamb projections: 8.4 catches, 112.9 yards, 1.2 TDs, 41.3-yard longest catch
Against the commanders on Thanksgiving, Lamb was held to 4 receptions for 53 yards with 1 touchdown.
However, entering Week 18 with 122 receptions for 1,651 yards and 10 touchdowns, the Heavy Sports model projects Lamb to surpass each of his season averages in each of the categories listed above.
4. Jake Ferguson’s Ascent Will Continue
Second-year tight end Jake Ferguson has emerged as a reliable weapon for Prescott and the Cowboys’ passing game in 2023.
Closing in on a 700-yard sophomore season, our model expects Ferguson to surpass his season averages in every major statistical category.
Ferguson projections: 5 catches, 61.9 yards, 0.5 TDs, 24.3-yard longest catch
If Prescott is going to have the kind of performance our model expects, Ferguson figures to be a beneficiary. Ferguson enters Sunday’s contest with 65 receptions for 692 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2023.
5. More Convincing Victory Than Las Vegas Expects
The Heavy Sports model is all in on the Cowboys taking care of business and taking home the division title.
Our projections have Dallas entering Sunday as a prohibitive favorite, with a 15-point edge, which is two points higher than any of the major sports books.
Likewise, the model does not have much faith in Washington’s offense, as it has the total set nearly three points lower than the average of Vegas’ expectations.
Here’s a look at how the model compares to those sportsbooks: