5 AI-Powered Wild Card Predictions for Packers vs. Cowboys

Getty Packers QB Jordan Love (left) & Cowboys QB Dak Prescott (right).

The Green Bay Packers (9-8), after clinching the NFC’s No. 7 seed in Week 18, will travel 1,131 miles south to face the Dallas Cowboys (12-5) in the Wild Card round on Sunday, January 14.

Playoff seeding aside, both squads have been riding high since November. Dallas, winners of 7 of its last 9 games, clinched the NFC East title and its third-straight 12-win season under Mike McCarthy.

And after a turbulent start, Matt LaFleur’s Packers finished out the regular season winning 6 of their last 8 games — including 3 straight must-wins.

Here are five Wild Card game predictions generated by Heavy Sports’ AI-powered projections model, powered by our partners at Quarter 4:

1. There Will Be More Scoring Than Vegas Already Expects

All seven major sportsbooks in our database are hovering at 50.5 total points for Sunday’s No. 2 vs. No. 7 matchup. That’s the second-highest implied total of all 6 Wild Card games, trailing only Rams vs. Lions.

In 17 regular season games, Dallas averaged 29.9 points per game (5th in NFL) and Green Bay averaged 22.5 points (11th), but scored 30+ in 2 of their last 3 games.

Dallas’ average margin of victory in 2023 was 22.1 points, so when they won, they won big. Only 3 of their 12 wins finished within 6 points.

Green Bay, on the other hand, doesn’t mind one-possession finishes as 6 of their 9 wins were by 8 points or fewer.

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2. CeeDee Lamb Will Account for at Least 40% of Dak Prescott’s Passing Yards & 1 Touchdown

For the first time in NFL history, the top two passing touchdown leaders — Dak Prescott (36) and Jordan Love (32) — will meet in a playoff opener.

Prescott and CeeDee Lamb will light up the Packers’ secondary on Sunday — at least according to our projections model.

Lamb projections: 9.2 catches, 118.6 receiving yards, 1.5 TDs

Prescott projections: 27.8 comp, 293.4 pass yards, 2.1 TDs, 0.5 INTs, 15.1 rush yards

Lamb finished 2 yards shy of 100 against Washington in Week 18, a mark he eclipsed in 8-of-17 games this season, most recently a career-high 227 yards against the Lions in Week 17.

Our model likes both Cowboys stars to surpass their season averages in completions/receptions and yardage against Green Bay’s 9th-ranked passing defense (206.8 YPG).

3. Green Bay’s Defense Will Sack Dak Prescott 3 or More Times

Joe Barry’s Packers defense has clamped down over the last two weeks, allowing 19 total points and sacking the opposing QB 9 times (or 20% of their 45 total this season).

Our model foresees more of the same on Sunday with 2.9 projected sacks of Prescott — tied for third-highest among all 12 defenses in action.

Dallas allowed 40 sacks of Prescott in the regular season, 19th-most in the league.

Cowboys guard Tyler Smith (plantar fascia tear) should again be on the Cowboys’ injury report after missing Week 18. All-Pro counterpart Zack Martin also missed the season finale with an illness.

4. Jake Ferguson Will Lead All Tight Ends in Yards on Wild Card Weekend

The Packers’ defense was favorable toward tight ends in 2023, allowing the 13th-most yardage (868) on the 7th-fewest targets (107) to the position.

While our model (and the general public) expect a shootout in Dallas, our projections are particularly favorable toward Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson:

Projections: 5.4 catches, 66.7 receiving yards, 0.4 TDs

All three categories project 25-33% higher than Ferguson’s 2023 season averages of 4.1 catches, 44.7 yards and 0.29 TDs.

Ferguson’s projected 5.4 catches and 66.7 receiving yards are the highest totals among all TEs in our database for Super Wild Card weekend. He topped both totals 5 times in 2023, including a 6-69 line in Week 18.

His implied Wild Card receiving total is 14-21% higher than the other “big three”: Sam LaPorta (57.6), David Njoku (56.4) and Travis Kelce (52.8).

5. The Final Score Margin Will Be Less Than a Touchdown

Sunday marks the first playoff matchup between the Packers and Cowboys since January 2017, a 34-31 Divisional Round win by Green Bay.

According to Pro Football Reference, the two NFC powerhouses are split 4-4 in eight playoff games all-time, and Green Bay leads the regular season series 17-13.

As of Tuesday, January 9, our model has a projected point spread of Cowboys by 4.5 points. That differs from the seven major sportsbooks in our database, all of which like Dallas as 7.5-point favorites.

Here’s a look at how the model compares:

* The Heavy data point is a projected spread powered by Quarter4. The other outlets in the table are all sportsbooks.