The Denver Broncos are entering their first postseason since 2015, winners of five of their last seven games. Led by rookie Bo Nix, the Broncos face a daunting challenge against the Buffalo Bills.
The Bills are the AFC’s No. 2 seed and are quarterbacked by MVP candidate Josh Allen. However, former 13-time Pro Bowl QB Drew Brees believes the Broncos are an “ascending” team.
That may not translate to a win – Brees would not say. But it is encouraging moving forward.
“The run game has been more established and Bo is more comfortable under center with the play action and turning his back to the defense,” Brees told The Sports Daily’s DJ Siddiqi in an interview published on January 10. “That combined with the great defense is why they’re an ascending team going to the playoffs. Look, they’ve got a tough test going to Buffalo. But they’re playing well right now.”
Brees acknowledged Nix and the Broncos’ slow start offensively, an expected outcome of transitioning from the college game to the NFL, the likely future Hall of Famer said. He also questioned whether the Broncos had a true go-to option for Nix, noting the group stepped up.
The most telling part, however, was Brees noting the limited playbook the Broncos ran at the beginning of the season and how it has expanded since.
Broncos Catching Josh Allen at Right Time
GettyJosh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills exits the field after a game against the New England Patriots.
One of the keys to a victory for Nix and the Broncos has to be limiting Allen’s time on the field, which is where Brees’ assertion about the running game looms large. However, Allen is not coming into this game playing his best.
He played one snap in Week 18, making a handoff and then absconding to the bench against the New England Patriots.
Allen also completed 60.6% of his passes over the Bills’ final five games.
That is a far cry from his 67.1% clip from the previous seven games. After posting a completion percentage in the 50s three times across the first 12 games of the season, Allen posted three such marks in his final four outings with a pass attempt.
RIDICULOUS.
📺: @paramountplus & @NFLonCBS
Allen still threw for 1,040 yards with 8 touchdowns and 1 interception during that season-closing stretch, and the Bills went 3-1 when he attempted a pass.
He could be motivated after missing out on First-Team All-Pro, which could be telling for MVP.
Bills HC’s Record vs Rookies Ominous for Bo Nix, Broncos
GettyBo Nix #10 of the Denver Broncos looks on from the sidelines against the Los Angeles Chargers.
FanDuel’s 8.5-point spread for this game is tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers-at-Baltimore Ravens matchup for the largest of the weekend. Statistically speaking, the Broncos’ underdog status entering this game is warranted.
The Bills posted a graphic full of statistics, including head coach Sean McDermott’s record against rookie QBs: 11-4.
What’s more, rookie passers have been held to 10 TDs and 21 INTs in those games.
The Bills have an NFL-best .816 winning percentage at home (regular season + playoffs) since 2020.
More stats heading into Sunday ⬇️
Nix completed 66.3% of his passes for 3,775 yards with 29 passing touchdowns and 12 picks, adding another 430 yards and 4 scores on the 92 rushing attempts. Nix’s taking advantage of his rushing ability – much like Allen does – could be the x-factor in this game.
Notably, five of Nix and the Broncos’ seven losses came against teams in the postseason. The other two came against teams in the hunt in the final weeks of the campaign.
The Broncos logged two wins against eventual playoff teams during the regular season.
One of those came against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers – who they would not see until the Super Bowl – in Week 3, and the other was against the Kansas City Chiefs who rested their starters in Week 18.
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Legendary QB Sends Clear Message on Bo Nix, Broncos Before Bills Game