Trade Pitch Swaps Packers $92 Million All-Pro for Rival’s Draft Haul

Getty General manager Brian Gutekunst (left) of the Green Bay Packers speaks with head coach Matt LaFleur (right) during OTAs in May 2023.

Several former Green Bay Packers have opted for a new shade of green in the AFC East this offseason, and another prominent Packer could join them before the year is out.

Green Bay agreed in April to send the New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers via a trade. SB Nation’s ACME Packing Co. proposed on Thursday, August 3, that five-time All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari might join his former teammate ahead of the NFL’s trade deadline in late October.

New York already owes Green Bay a conditional second-round pick that becomes a first if Rodgers plays 65% of the Jets’ offensive snaps in 2023. By removing the conditional status of that selection and making it a first-rounder outright, then tossing in another asset in the neighborhood of a 2024 third-round pick, New York might be able to relieve the Packers of Bakhtiari’s onerous contract.

“Using the Rich Hill trade value chart, if Green Bay thinks adding Bakhtiari would worsen that first-round pick from say 20 to 26, Green Bay should require an additional third round pick to make that trade,” ACME’s article explained. “That is because the value difference between 20 and 26 is worth about 46 points, which is the value of [pick No. 89] in the draft. This is just one example.”

David Bakhtiari Trade Cheap for Jets in 2023, Offers Packers Major Savings in 2024

GettyGreen Bay Packers left tackle David Bakhtiari could end up a trade candidate ahead of the NFL’s October 31 trade deadline.

Bakhtiari is entering the third season of his four-year, $92 million contract with the Packers and is carrying a salary cap hit of approximately $21.3 million.

There isn’t much incentive on this year’s cap sheet for Green Bay to trade Bakhtiari, as doing so will save the team only $2.25 million in 2023, while the franchise will still incur a $19.1 million dead cap hit, per Over The Cap. However, moving the left tackle will save the Packers $21.5 million in 2024.

While the Jets would need to do some financial maneuvering to absorb Bakhtiari’s 2024 cap hit, he would be an exceedingly cheap upgrade for the Jets this year.

“David Bakhtiari’s 2023 cap hit for an acquiring team is incredibly small at just over $100,000 per week,” the ACME article said. “The important part is [the Jets] can do this. The real question for Green Bay becomes: would Green Bay want to do this?”

David Bakhtiari Trade to Jets Falls Short of Home Run for Packers in Any Scenario

GettyGreen Bay Packers left tackle David Bakhtiari celebrates with former teammate and quarterback Aaron Rodgers during an NFL game.

There are two reasons for Green Bay not to trade Bakhtiari to the Jets. The first is that doing so affords New York arguably a top-10 positional talent who addresses the team’s biggest roster hole. The Packers will probably get the Jets’ first-round pick in 2024 if Rodgers stays healthy, and they can ensure it by making the hypothetical deal proposed above. But giving New York Bakhtiari probably makes that asset less valuable because it will make the Jets that much better.

The second reason is the Packers have now gone all-in on Jordan Love, and a great left tackle tends to help a first-year starting quarterback considerably. Bakhtiari’s leadership and protection of Love’s blindside will both be sorely missed should the left tackle depart Green Bay at any point, for any destination, this season.

That said, circumstances over the first half of the year may end up dictating the Packers’ willingness to execute a Bakhtiari trade. Moving all that money makes sense if Green Bay gets off to a slow start and isn’t likely to compete for a playoff spot down the stretch. A hot start would, of course, have the opposite effect — especially in the NFC North, which should be one of the league’s more winnable divisions in 2023.

On the other hand, if the Jets are mediocre through the first seven games and it appears they will pick closer to the middle of the pack regardless, the Packers might be more inclined to lock that draft compensation (via the Rodgers trade) in as a first-rounder and risk it getting a little bit worse by sending Bakhtiari to New York.

The Packers getting off of the last year and a half of Bakhtiari’s contract and picking up a third-round draft selection in return, while also locking in a solid first-round pick from the Jets in 2024, is Green Bay winning enough in the margins to justify such a move.