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Travis Kelce was a driving force behind the Kansas City Chiefs advancing to the 2024 Super Bowl and now aims to take home a third Lombardi Trophy by knocking off the San Francisco 49ers.
Against the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship Game, Kelce pulled down all 11 of his targets for 116 yards and a touchdown in the Chiefs’ 17-10 victory to clinch a berth in the franchise’s fourth Super Bowl in the past five seasons.
Kelce, who has captured the nation’s attention thanks to his relationship with billionaire mega-pop star Taylor Swift, now takes on a 49ers defense that is holding opponents to 214.2 passing yards and just 17.5 points per game.
Heavy’s AI-powered projections model has the Chiefs as 5-point underdogs, with the over/under set at 50.5 points.
During the regular season, the 49ers’ defense allowed 105 receptions for 959 yards and 4 touchdowns to opposing tight ends. So, the opportunity is there for Kelce to have a strong performance.
Can Kelce once again power a Chiefs offense that has spent much of the season searching for an identity and reliable, complementary weapons for quarterback Patrick Mahomes?
Here are three predictions for Kelce in the Super Bowl, powered by Heavy’s dfsPro Daily projections:
1. Travis Kelce May Struggle to Get Open vs. 49ers Defense
Kelce was Mahomes’ favorite target against the Ravens, as he has been in many of the Chiefs’ most important games of this era.
However, the Heavy Sports model projects the 49ers to keep Kelce to 5.9 receptions, which would be 4.8% lower than his per-game average during the 2023 campaign.
If that projection holds true, it would be a marked improvement for San Francisco’s defense, after allowing Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta to go off for nine receptions for 97 yards in the NFC Championship game.
Kelce has leveled up this postseason, averaging 7.6 receptions per game across the Chiefs’ three playoff contests.
2. Kelce Will Make the Most of His Catches
Even if the Chiefs hold Kelce below his season-average reception total, the All-Pro tight end still has the potential to make a significant impact on the outcome.
Our model projects Kelce to produce 65.8 passing yards, the third-highest total among Chiefs’ pass-catchers, trailing only wide receiver Rashee Rice for Kansas City’s team-high.
Kelce capped his 11th season with 93 receptions for 984 yards and 5 touchdowns while averaging 71.6 receiving yards per game.
One way that Kelce could still be a difference-maker is by making a game-changing big play, and our model believes Kelce’s longest catch will go for 20.3 yards, which could easily tilt the game’s field position battle.
3. Kelce Might Not Get to Debut a Taylor Swift TD Celebration
After reaching the end zone against the Buffalo Bills in the NFC Divisional round, Kelce celebrated by making Swift’s famous heart hands gesture. There’s no telling what kind of tribute Kelce might have planned for the Super Bowl.
However, those plans might turn into what could’ve been or should’ve been.
Our model projects that Kelce scores just 0.7 touchdowns.
During the regular season, Kelce reached the end zone in just five games, failing to record a multi-touchdown game. However, that changed with Kelce’s 2-score outburst in Buffalo, and the 34-year-old enters Super Bowl Sunday with 3 receiving touchdowns these playoffs.
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