It is only a matter of time before the Minnesota Vikings start saying goodbye to long-time staples of the franchise.
At the top of that list is hometown hero and fan favorite wide receiver Adam Thielen, who is getting more expensive as his on-field production continues a moderate trajectory of decline.
Vikings Happy Hour podcast regulars Matt Anderson and Ryan Ortega played a game of “cut, trade or extend” with a handful of Vikings players on Thursday, February 16, which began with Thielen. As they worked through the options, it became clearer and clearer that parting ways with the wideout is the only feasible outcome considering his current contract situation.
“I just don’t see a way he’s playing with [the Vikings] next year,” Ortega said. “I think it’s a cut because I don’t think he has enough trade value given the contract.”
“I just don’t see him taking a big enough pay cut. I don’t see [Minnesota] being interested in extending,” he continued. “Take that money and … you can even go pay somebody in the open market that is gonna be out there with [a somewhat] equivalent skill set for less money.”
Vikings WR Adam Thielen Carries Huge Salary Cap Number in 2023
GettyWide receiver Adam Thielen of the Minnesota Vikings acknowledges fans before a preseason game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium on August 14, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Getty Images)
What makes Thielen’s contract so untenable is not what he actually stands to earn in 2023, but what his salary cap number will be if the Vikings keep him on the roster.
The team restructured Thielen’s four-year, $64.2 million deal last offseason in order to create north of $5 million in salary cap space. However, by pushing more money into the 2023 and 2024 seasons, the Vikings have made the 32-year-old receiver more expensive as he enters the 10th campaign of his NFL career.
Thielen will earn around $13.4 million if he plays for the Vikings this upcoming season, but he will cost nearly $20 million against the team’s salary cap. Anderson and Ortega spoke about reports that Thielen is willing to take a pay cut, though probably not to the extent the Vikings would require to keep him rostered.
“There’s been reports out there that have been saying … maybe he’s going to be willing to take a pay cut, he wants to stick around, he feels like he can still contribute to a contender or to a team and help make them a contender,” Ortega said. “I look at that idea and say, ‘How far is he going to be willing to go?’ Because I don’t know if he’s even worth [$6 million] the way he played last year.”
“You can get that in the third, fourth round of the draft this year and not pay $6 million, so is he willing to take that much of a pay cut? I don’t think he is,” Ortega continued. “I think he’d rather go and see what he can get elsewhere.”
Vikings Likely Wait Until Summer to Cut Wide Receiver Adam Thielen
GettyWide receiver Adam Thielen of the Minnesota Vikings sits on the bench during a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium on November 28, 2021 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
“If [the Vikings] cut him just outright, [they] almost have to do it with a post-June 1 designation to really see benefit, because I think if [the Vikings] cut him prior to that … it’s $13.5 million dead cap and they’re not gonna eat that,” Anderson said.
He added that if the Vikings cut Thielen after June 1, the dead cap cost to the team would be closer to $6 million, which would cut the price of parting ways with the wideout in half — and then some.
Thielen caught 70 passes for 716 yards and six touchdowns across 17 starts last season, per Pro Football Reference. However, he also produced the lowest averages of his career at just 10.2 yards per catch and 6.7 yards per target. Pro Football Focus ranked Thielen 68th out of 113 players qualifying at the position in 2022 with an overall grade of 65.5.
Thielen has not registered a 1,000-yard season since the last of his back-to-back Pro-Bowl appearances in 2018 and missed 10 regular season games over a three-year span between 2019-21. However, he also caught 14 touchdowns and 10 touchdowns in 2020 and 2021, respectively.
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Vikings Projected to Cut $64 Million Fan Favorite This Summer