The Minnesota Vikings made their restructure of Adam Thielen‘s contract official on Wednesday morning — and while it provides the team with some immediate cap relief, one analyst believes it could get ugly.
The Athletic’s Chad Graff weighed in on Thielen’s most recent restructure, which is becoming a perennial happening for the aging veteran star and homegrown hero.
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Graff: It Could Get ‘Ugly’ in Minnesota
Minnesota saved $5.16 million on the 2022 books by converting a portion of Thielen’s $12 million base salary to a signing bonus. The Vikings now have $15.8 million in cap space, per Over The Cap, and could make one more splashy move in free agency.
However, it could come at a long-term cost.
Thielen’s cap hit in 2023 is slated to be nearly $20 million entering a season where he’ll turn 33. The Vikings, for a third consecutive offseason, could convert his $11.8 million base salary into another signing bonus, but that would further push Thielen’s earnings further down the road and onto void years in the contract. That would leave Thielen’s weight on the yearly salary cap even after he’s done wearing purple and gold.
“This is another example of the Vikings kicking the can down the road in hopes they’ll be good this season,” Graff tweeted. “Adam Thielen’s new deal saved $5M in 2022 but his cap number increases next year when he’ll be 33. All fine if the Vikings are as good as they hope in 2022 but ugly if not.”
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Thielen has missed 11 games in the past three seasons. While he is still one of the league’s best route runners and red-zone threats, his health and workload in the offense do not warrant a $20 million-a-year cap hit.
And it only gets worse for the Vikings. Here’s a full breakdown of Thielen’s cap hits for the remainder of his contract:
- 2022 — $11,668,235
- 2023 — $19,967,647
- 2024 — $21,655,882
- 2025 (void) — $2,250,000
Crossroads Coming in 2024
On top of Thielen’s mountain of money approaching the tail end of his contract, wide receiver Justin Jefferson will be ready for his payday soon.
Jefferson is eligible to sign a new contract after next season but is under team control through the 2024 season with a fifth-year option embedded in his rookie contract.
It’d be wise to secure Jefferson to a long-term deal sooner than later. Suppose Minnesota waits and exercises Jefferson’s fifth-year option (roughly a $20 million deal with Jefferson already making multiple Pro Bowl appearances) with Thielen on the final year of his deal. In that case, the Vikings will have nearly $42 million sunk into their top two wide receivers.
The Vikings’ star wide receivers have played at a discount with Kirk Cousins in Minnesota, but 2024 will bring their just dues. Defensive end Danielle Hunter will also soon hope to be paid like a top-five player at the most valuable position on defense — leaving little room to keep a quarterback with a premium salary, like Cousins.
The Vikings are showing they’re all-in and trying to win-now with the pieces left by former general manager Rick Spielman and head coach Mike Zimmer, but if the team’s “competitive rebuild” fails in the next two seasons, sweeping changes would be on the horizon with Cousins’ contract expiring.
Re-signing Jefferson should be a top priority for a franchise that remains invested in doing right for Adam Thielen as well. That would leave little room in the team coffers to sign a veteran franchise quarterback.
However, Minnesota would have to find a competent quarterback to keep Jefferson well-fed and the Vikings in contention. Otherwise, Jefferson could venture away from the Vikings, as the franchise’s many star receivers have done in the past.
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Vikings Make Move on Adam Thielen That Could Get ‘Ugly,’ Analyst Says